The Monday afternoon ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:
Today is another reminder of just how bad the GFS MOS has been performing lately. The model was suggesting highs in the mid 50s today, but temperatures are only in the mid 40s. MOS is ten degrees too warm, and I remind all of you to use extreme caution with that MOS product in coming days and weeks. The GFS MOS product stinks in this kind of cold pattern.
I also think the model is too optimistic on cloud cover in coming days. You look at the model and you might think the sky here will be sunny in the next few days, but with the screaming sub-tropical jet overhead, we will have high clouds around most of the time. The GFS seems to be stuck on highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s; the afternoon temps still look too warm to me.
The pattern continues to look dry through Friday. Actually that makes me very nervous in a pattern like this; you really need to expect the unexpected, and we need to keep our eyes open for surprises in the southern jet stream coming out of the Eastern Pacific and Mexico.
THE WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK: At this point Saturday looks dry and cool, but some light rain will be possible Sunday afternoon and Sunday night in advance of an Arctic cold front. Much colder air rolls in here next week; looks like highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s Monday and Tuesday. The flood of cold air will cover much of the nation, and we will be watching for any sign of winter weather mischief in the STJ. No change in our thinking through mid-February; the weather will be cold and unsettled.
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Going to have to keep this fairly short today… lots of things going on here in the weather office. A reminder, we will be taping a new WeatherBrains tonight (our weekly netcast) which will touch on the “Weather Channel/Global Warming” topic that is flooding the airwaves and my e-mail inbox. We will post the show early tomorrow morning; if you subscribe via iTunes you will get it automatically, but you can also listen on the web on our main site, weatherbrains.com
I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
