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This will be challenging but fun series of weeks in the ole weather office. The coldest air the nation has seen in many years, and an active southern stream. I thank all of you for taking the time to read this, because this is the best way to see what James Spann has to say; hearing it from the person next to you in the checkout line at the supermarket isn’t it. I have already heard from people who had other people tell them “James Spann is forecasting a big snow for Birmingham in a week”. Wrong. I do believe parts of the southern U.S. will have multiple winter storm threats over the next few weeks, but I have no idea who gets the snow at this stage of the game. I will begin to be much more specific on Monday morning, and you know my deal, I take them one at a time.
Let me also suggest you don’t focus on run to run model differences this far out. The NAM and the GFS run four times daily, and they will all look different beyond 48 hours (and sometimes during the next 48 hours!). This is a very difficult, anomalous pattern that the models just won’t understand very well. And, in the longer ranges they always tend to skew toward climatology in the MOS products, which makes them pretty much useless in this kind of setup.
Here we go…….
RIGHT NOW: Cold out there. Fort Payne and Cullman are showing 21 degrees at 5:00… Birmingham is at 26. Looks like we have a decent warm-up today; we should reach the low 50s this afternoon with a good deal of sun.
THE WEEKEND: The old upper low west of El Paso comes out, and will bring some rain to Alabama tomorrow night. Clouds will increase tomorrow afternoon, and periods of rain are likely after the sun goes down. The NAM is still fairly wet; it shows 0.34″ for Birmingham. The GFS is a little drier with 0.14″. No real change in our thinking; mostly rain, but to the north of Birmingham a few snow flakes or ice pellets could be mixed in after midnight as colder air drops south. Temperatures should remain above freezing, and at this point we don’t expect any icy travel over North Alabama. But, these things always make me nervous. We will keep a close eye on the situation.
A big time cold air shot moves in here on Sunday. I think we hold in the 30s all day; the NAM is really getting aggressive and it shows a temperature of 30 degrees in Birmingham at Noon Sunday. The wind chill will be below freezing basically all day, and we might have enough moisture for a few snow flurries during the morning hours.
NEXT WEEK: Model madness rules. I don’t trust anything I see; I am doing my best to go back to previous patterns like this, because history can often be a good teacher. Bottom line is this: a very cold, Arctic airmass will be over much of the nation, and there will be various waves coming through the southern stream that will spin up storms on the southern periphery of the cold air. This always favors winter storm threats across the southern U.S., and I believe we will have at least two of them in the February 1-7 time frame. Trying to nail down the details now is impossible.
The 06Z GFS jumps on a lead wave and spins up a Gulf low now on Tuesday afternoon, which brings a mass of precipitation through here Tuesday night. I am not willing to jump on this just yet; lets get another day of data under out belt. I still think the storm to watch is the one at the end of the week, even though this latest run isn’t as strong with it. And, there is no need to speculate on who gets the snow right now. Sure, it is fun to guess, but we aren’t in the business to throw out guesses here. You know the deal, tell that you know, and don’t tell them what you don’t know. The Monday morning discussion here should begin to answer some of your questions. And remember, with any winter storm situation you will have snow lovers that are delighted, and some that are disappointed. But, there will be multiple opportunities here.
LONG RANGE: At some point the cold will relax as we get later into the month. Remember, the amount of daylight continues to grow, and the sun angle is getting higher. But, also remember we have seen big snows here as late as the first week of April.
Bill Castle is working hard now on finishing up the stories for Storm Alert 2007; our annual weather tour across the state. The first stop is in Tuscaloosa next Thursday night at 7:00 p.m. at Shelton State Community College (the gym)… we hope to see you there. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30 or so this afternoon… I am sure J.B. will have a full list of the frigid morning lows posted here shortly.
