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January was certainly an interesting month evenly split between extremely warm weather for the first half and relatively cold weather for the second half. And for the foreseeable future it appears that the cold air will remain firmly entrenched with daily temperatures remaining generally below seasonal values. And with the cold air in place, we will continue to have to watch for the development of any kind of situation that could produce winter weather across the Southeast. At this moment in time, there are no clear cut patterns that suggest any kind of significant winter weather event. Rather the latest computer model guidance keeps the Southeast on edge with marginal situations that can go either way. It’s just tough to get the absolutely right atmospheric receipe for a winter event.
Today we say good bye to the sun as clouds come back to the sky. I know I’ve enjoyed the sunshine we’ve had for the last couple of days. That 58 I had on my thermometer yesterday felt very nice. And as the clouds return so does a reinforcing shot of cold air.
A surface low – fairly weak – travels along the Gulf coast today and tonight. The surface low should be off Charleston tomorrow morning, and as it does the counter clockwise circulation will help to bring cold air southward with a surface high over the Central US. Leftover moisture may allow some flurries to occur in the area from Birmingham north and northeast.
Sunshine should return by Monday and Tuesday but the air will remain cold. A large surface high over the Central US will settle in slowly across the Tennessee and Ohio valleys with cold air and good radiational cooling combining to bring some very chilly mornings. The surface high appears to suppress any developments in the Gulf further south, and the GFS never really gets a good low to develop. But as Bill Murray notes, we’ll have to watch later runs to see if this trend continues.
Late Wednesday and Thursday the moisture returns west of Alabama and the GFS hints at another surface low in the Gulf. I say hint because the GFS never draws a closed low on the surface chart. If the GFS is too weak with this pattern, then someone in the Southeast could be in for some serious problems. As the GFS presents it right now, any problems would occur across Tennessee, Kentucky, and Arkansas. But we all know that a few miles change in a storm track or a few millibars lower for the storm strength, and everything changes substantially.
By late Friday and Saturday, the weather clears out and cold air comes back again. The main reason for the continuation of the cold appears to be the continuation of the long wave trough position over the eastern half of the US. And the model data keeps a low in the vicinity of the Southwest US (that Four Corners Storm Machine James has mentioned from time-to-time). This pattern keeps just about all meteorologists across the southern portion of the US on edge watching new model runs to see what will happen. And everyone of us hoping that the GFS will handle it well – we can hope!!
In the longer range, the trend is for the long wave trough to remain in the vicinity of the eastern US. And even the long range output keeps a closed low over the Southwest US. So no significant weather changes are anticipated for the next couple of weeks with an active pattern and lots of possibilities. Let’s see, the calendar says January 27th – less than two months to the official start of spring!!!
Don’t forget only six days to the start of the 2007 edition of our Storm Alert Tour. We begin in Tuscaloosa this year at Shelton State Community College. The program begins at 7 pm sharp because the boss has to be back in the studio by 10 pm to do the last newscast of the day. I hope to see you there. Have a great weekend.
-Brian-
