Thought I would share the words I will be posting over to the seven day forecast page shortly… as the new 00Z model data rolls in…
THIS IS THE WEDNESDAY MORNING DISCUSSION…
“An interesting combination is ahead for Alabama; a fresh supply of very cold Arctic air, and a new storm system forming to the southwest of here tonight. As always, the hard part of this forecast is determining who gets rain, ice, and snow. The leading edge of the precipitation will move into Alabama late tonight, mainly after midnight, and the period from 2:00 a.m. until about 9:00 a.m. could offer some icy travel problems in parts of North Alabama.
This time time, we believe the greatest chance of significant ice accumulation and icy travel will be along and north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. This is where freezing rain and sleet is likely for a few hours early in the morning. The latest computer model data is now suggesting some snow north of a line from Athens to Guntersville to Centre. There might even be some accumulating snow in this region for a while, before the precipitation changes to rain later in the day.
I need to stress that we can’t rule out some ice problems as far south as I-20 and the greater Birmingham metro area. Evaporative cooling could bring temperatures down to 32 degrees in spots from Birmingham to Anniston, so we recommend that all of you get up extra early tomorrow morning to check on highway conditions before leaving for work or school. Warmer air moving in from the south will bring temperatures above freezing by midday tomorrow, and travel should get back to normal. Rain will fall much of the day… finally ending from west to east tomorrow night.”
Bottom line is that the models are coming in a little colder for early Thursday morning, and concern is growing a bit for the possibility of icy travel across North Alabama and North Georgia, and of course northward into Tennessee. The -3 (C) isotherm is well down into Northeast Alabama on the new 00Z NAM/WRF, which is the reason we are going to hit the chance of snow a little harder north of a line from Athens to Guntersville to Centre.
Much more, on this system, and the weather in the long range coming up on the morning blog discussion, which will be posted by 6:00 a.m. tomorrow…
