The Wednesday morning edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:
A winter storm will impact parts of the Deep South tonight and tomorrow, and very cold air covers a large part of the nation. We are indeed taking an interesting winter ride.
NWS Birmingham has issued a winter weather advisory for late tonight and early tomorrow generally along and north of a line from Millport to Birmingham to Roanoke. NWS Atlanta has issued a winter storm watch for much of North Georgia, including the Atlanta metro area.
RIGHT NOW: Very cold… on our SKYCAM network we are showing 17 at Hamilton and 18 at Cullman… colder than our forecast numbers for this morning. The SKYCAM site in downtown Birmingham shows 22 as I write this. Dewpoints are in the single digits.
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW: Precipitation will move into Alabama late tonight; sure looks like the faster GFS solution is correct with it beginning between 9:00 p.m. and midnight. Due to the very dry air in the low levels, we will have evaporative cooling for a while, and there is great concern that will keep temperatures at or below freezing over much of North Alabama tonight and into the early morning hours tomorrow. In this kind of profile, some sleet is likely (ice pellets) at the onset, followed by a period of freezing rain (rain falling with the surface temperature is 32 degree or colder) as the column saturates.
We have been highlighting icy travel especially for areas north of I-20, but with the evaporative cooling process there is more concern now for ice issues as far south as Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston. The air will be colder over East Alabama, as usual, in this kind of situation, and some ice could be seen as far south as Randolph county, down to Roanoke.
To the north, thickness values are initially low enough for snow over the Tennessee Valley mainly north of U.S. 278. Some folks up that way might get an inch on the ground before it changes to freezing rain, and rain tomorrow morning. I might even dare suggest that the northeast corner of the state, Jackson and DeKalb counties, might see 2 or 3 inches of snow based on projected low level thermal values. This could include places like Scottsboro, Fort Payne, and Mentone. I sure wish I was up at Desoto State Park atop Lookout Mountain!
Let me caution you that forecasting details of a winter storm like this is a very difficult task. This setup could change, and I suggest you keep the blog refreshed today pretty often. Like I have said here, the easy part was the pattern recognition; that is being able to tell you days ago that the weather would be very cold and very unsettled.
SUMMARY: Once again, sleet and freezing rain is likely tonight north of a line from Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Roanoke, with some snow along and north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. The greatest window for travel problems will come from about 10:00 tonight through 7:00 a.m. tomorrow. All precipitation will change to rain by mid-morning, with the possible exception of extreme Northeast Alabama, where it is often harder for the low level air to modify. Everyone will need to get up extra early tomorrow to check on road conditions before leaving for work.
At this point I don’t expect enough ice accumulation for major power outages due to the short term nature of the event.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Friday will be dry and chilly, and another Arctic blast rolls in here Friday night. GFS numbers for the weekend are a total joke; like they have been in recent days. We expect highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s over the weekend. It is beyond belief anyone could forecast highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s, but I understand some people are still doing that. Those same sources were forecasting highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s for today just a few days ago…
Very cold weather for the weekend is the easy part; we will continue to watch energy in the southern stream, but for now all models, including the Canadian GEM, is keeping the precipitation south of here on Saturday and Sunday. Lets get tomorrow’s system on by and then we can put more time into the weekend scenario.
NEXT WEEK: More cold air rolls in here on Monday. We might stay below freezing all day Monday with an icy north wind. Maybe some flurries as this Arctic shot arrives. The latest GFS holds off the next precipitation until Thursday and suggests we will be warm enough for rain. But, there is no way anyone can trust that specific solution right now. The weather continues to look cold through mid-month.
SKYCAM NETWORK: The ABC 33/40 SKYCAM network will be great way to watch the weather conditions tonight and early tomorrow; you can see the images and weather data anytime here.
STORM ALERT 2007: No travel problems tomorrow night, and Storm Alert 2007 is on for Tuscaloosa. We begin the show at 7:00 at the gym at Shelton State Community College. We look forward to seeing you there; we will have some great Alabama weather stories and give away some really good prizes. When we were at Shelton State in 2001, we had over 2,000 people there, so you might want to get there early for a good seat!
WEATHER PARTY: Get the latest weather related news on our sister site, weatherparty.com. Be sure and register and you can submit links and vote on them!
I will be speaking at Bluff Park Elementary today… I always enjoy my visits there. We will have frequent updates on the Alabama weather situation today… so stay tuned!
