The Friday morning edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:
These are the times that try men’s souls… Thomas Paine must have been an amateur weather forecaster when he wrote those words during the American Revolution.
A challenging forecast for coming days and weeks, but the weekend outlook has more clarity.
MORE SNOW JUST NORTH OF HERE THIS MORNING: Another nice snow this morning for Tennessee; around 1 to 2 inches of fresh snow is on the ground along the I-40 corridor; snow flakes have been reported as far south as Tupelo, Mississippi. Our Hamilton SKYCAM is now showing 32 degrees, and as you can see on the blog comments on Jason’s post snow flakes have been seen this morning in places like Hamilton and Haleyville, up in Northwest Alabama. Just another example of what happens in this setup; a cold Polar trough in place with a disturbed southern stream underneath. Winter mischief that was not predicted very far in advance.
In our part of the state today will be cloudy and chilly with temperatures hovering in the low to mid 40s all today. Dense fog is a problem in many areas this morning, and there might be a little light rain or drizzle in scattered spots.
THE WEEKEND: Guess we can all agree the idea of a Gulf wave is off the table (at least a wave far enough north to impact Alabama). So, we just have to figure out temperatures. And, that is harder that it might appear. With a snow cover over Tennessee, and true Arctic air creeping southward (Denver is at 16 below zero now!); MOS numbers continue to look way too warm. We should begin the day tomorrow in the low 20s, and during the afternoon we will have a hard time getting out of the 30s. Looks like a mix of sun and clouds with no significant precipitation.
With no Gulf wave moving northeast helping to pull down colder air, we will raise the numbers up a bit for Sunday afternoon, but not as warm as the MOS guidance. Sunday looks dry for now with another very cold morning.
NEXT WEEK: The GFS shows the next cold air push arriving Sunday night; it hints we hold in the 30s all day Monday, and it now has us at 18 early Tuesday morning. And, you know the GFS numbers have been way too warm lately. So, the first part of the week will be cold (nothing new!)… by the time the next impulse impacts the state later in the week (Thursday-Friday) the model shows enough modification for liquid precipitation, but everyone that reads this blog knows how rotten the model performance has been in the last week, and I have no real trust in them for next week and beyond. I still think the weather here features temperatures below normal deep into February. This blocked pattern is not going away anytime soon, although there will be periods when the air modifies.
Just be ready for lots of changes in the forecast for the next seven to 14 days. Like I have been saying, the pattern recognition was relatively easy, but the devil is in the details.
STORM ALERT 2007: Had a great crowd last night at our opening show in Tuscaloosa; the next stop will be in Blount County next Thursday night. We will be at the auditorium at Oneonta City School at 7:00… make plans to join us. We are giving away 20 NOAA Weather Radio receivers at each stop this year.
WEATHER PARTY: Lots of weather related news over on our sister site, weatherparty.com. Be sure and register and you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published to the main page.
I will have another discussion and video posted a little later today… enjoy your Friday!
