The Thursday morning edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Extreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:
If you love weather, I think you will find the ride we will be on rather fascinating in the next two to three weeks. The southern U.S. will have plenty of issues ranging from the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms to winter storms. The devil is in the details. Even the most conservative forecaster, who won’t admit to anything but highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s beyond day one, has to admit this will be a very active and challenging period for Alabama.
SHORT TERM: Our clouds, the ones that were a no-show yesterday, have finally arrived a day late. And, the cold air is back; the cold front is well south of Birmingham and will become nearly stationary over South Alabama today. A couple of weak waves will move along the front during the next 36 hours, which will mean cloudy and cold weather through tomorrow for the northern half of the state with a chance of some scattered light rain.
Early tomorrow morning much of North Alabama, along and north of I-20, will be at 32 degrees or below, so we will have to watch for any light precipitation that would fall in the form of freezing rain, which could mean some spotty bridge icing. I don’t think it is a big issue, but just something to be aware of. By Saturday morning, but the GFS and the NAM have us down in the mid 20s.
REST OF THE WEEKEND: Saturday looks mostly cloudy and cold, but dry, as we will be in between waves. We will continue to mention the chance of some rain at times on Sunday, but the 06Z GFS has come in a little drier. The high on Saturday will be in the 40s; we might have a crack at reaching the low 50s on Sunday if we don’t see that much rain.
Beyond the weekend, we have three systems on the table….
STORM NUMBER ONE: The latest GFS moves our old front north of here on Monday, putting Alabama in the warm sector of this system. During the day Monday, the best chance of rain will be north of here, along and north of the warm front over Tennessee. Then, as a surface low forms over Mississippi, it will move northeast and will bring a good chance of rain and thunderstorms to our state Monday night into Tuesday morning. SPC has defined a risk of severe weather for the southern half of Alabama during this time frame, where the air will be rather unstable. The snow threat with storm number one will be well to the north, over Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.
STORM NUMBER TWO: The next one will roll in here toward the end of next week, with the greatest impact coming on Thursday (February 15) according to the latest model trends. This looks like a classic runner from the northern Gulf over to the Atlantic, and then northeast just off the U.S. east coast. Sure looks like this one will bring snow to parts of the southeast U.S.; first glance shows the best chance of snow will be initially north of a line from Jackson, MS to Cullman to Chattanooga, then dropping south as the system pulls out. THIS NOT A FORECAST; I am simply telling you what the model looks like now. It will be hard to be specific with this one until storm number one gets out of the way. You know the deal, lets take em one at a time.
STORM NUMBER THREE: The third system of our trio comes around February 17-18 with yet another threat of snow for parts of the southern U.S. Just be aware this one is on the board.
THe pattern will continue to favor very cold air over the eastern half of the U.S. and a screaming southern jet with storms forming on the southern periphery of the cold air.
STORM ALERT 2007: We will be in Oneonta tonight at 7:00… at the high school auditorium. I expect a big crowd, so get down there early to get a good seat. If you come early you can watch me do the weather live on ABC 33/40 at 5:00 and 6:00. This is our annual weather tour across Alabama as we get everyone ready for the spring tornado season, which is just around the corner.
WEATHER PARTY: Lots and lots of weather related news over on our sister site, weatherparty.com. Check it out when you have time, and be sure and register so you can submit stories.
Speaking of no dull days, I am headed to Gardendale a little later this morning to speak to their Chamber of Commerce. Then, I will swing by the office to knock out a fresh Weather Xtreme video, and then we are on the road to the Storm Alert stop tonight up in Blount County. Have a wonderful Thursday!
