The Thursday afternoon edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available on the player below, and on iTunes:
Looks like a sneak attack winter weather situation is unfolding for tomorrow morning. The models are coming in colder and wetter, and bridge icing is a very real possibility as far south as I-20 tomorrow.
The NAM prints 0.17″ of rain for Birmingham between 6:00 a.m. and 12:00 noon with surface temperatures between 28 and 32 degrees during the entire six hour period. The GFS is not quite as cold, but pretty similar (the GFS shows 0.11″ for Birmingham witha temperature near 32). The NWS in Birmingham will be issuing a winter weather advisory for this situation shortly. Needless to say, if we do get 0.17″ with sub-freezing temperatures around here travel will be very difficult on bridges, and that would make for a big disruption tomorrow morning for schools and businesses. We don’t expect enough ice for major power outages, thankfully.
While we expect some freezing rain problems (freezing rain is rain that falls with the surface temperature is 32 degrees or colder) along the I-20 corridor tomorrow morning, BUFKIT data actually shows the lower atmosphere cold enough for snow north of a line from around Hamilton to Cullman to Collinsville. I would not be surprised if someone in that region has enough to make the ground white by mid to late morning. Another example of what can easily happen in this cold and unsettled pattern.
WEEKEND PEEK: Saturday still looks dry and chilly with a high in the 40s. The GFS continues to look rather dry for Sunday now, but we will maintain a chance of a few showers with a high in the low 50s.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: We still have three storm systems on the table (the models are consistently showing them)…
STORM NUMBER ONE: A developing system to the west should lift the old front, now over far South Alabama, northward Sunday night and Monday morning, putting us in the warm sector. The GFS continues to show most of the rain Monday north of Alabama, up in Tennessee, north of the warm front. A strong south wind could push temperatures here up into the 60s on Monday. Then, the main system will bring a healthy round of rain and strong storms Monday night into early Tuesday morning. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather across the southern half of Alabama, along and south of U.S. 80 (Demopolis to Montgomery to Opelika). The snow with this storm will be mostly over Missouri, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. And, it could be a big snow for them.
STORM NUMBER TWO: This one would come around a week from today, Thursday 2/15. The 12Z GFS has backed off on the system, but I still say it has a great chance of happening. This would bring a snow threat into parts of the southern U.S., with rain and storms in the warm sector.
STORM NUMBER THREE: The next one in the series continues to show up around Feb 18-19, and like number two parts of the Deep South will have snow, others will have rain and storms.
I need to stress that we must take the storm systems one at a time; lets get past this ice threat tomorrow morning before we really get specific with 1, 2, or 3. As I wrote this morning, there will be no dull days in this office for a while.
I am about to hit the road to Blount County; we hope to see you at Storm Alert 2007 tonight at Oneonta High School at 7:00… I will post some additional notes tonight as time allows (probably after I get back)… Bill Murray will be watching things from the office while we are away. J.B. has some Internet connectivity issues… he will be back as soon as we can get him back on line!
