The Friday morning edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:
Be sure scroll and and read J.B.’s “state of the state” update at 5:30… we will keep fresh updates going here all day as we watch the temperature/dewpoint/wet bulbs closely. You can see our SKYCAM images and weather data right here, which are very helpful on a day like today where a few degrees can mean the difference between icy bridges and wet ones.
Reports from our team of Skywatchers now show that parts of the Birmingham metro are down to 32 degrees; I expect some reports of bridge icing within the next hour or two; icy bridges are a problem now over much of Northwest Alabama where many school systems have closed for the day. Again, J.B. will have frequent updates…
The NAM is printing 0.15″ of precipitation today for Birmingham, while the GFS shows 0.05″. So, this is not a major event, but amounts in that range can certainly mean some significant bridge ice problems. I figure we will hover between 30 and 33 between 7:00 and 11:00 a.m…. that four hour period will be the main window for bridge icing; then we go into the mid 30s this afternoon travel problems should be very limited during the afternoon hours, with the exception of Northwest Alabama, where places like Hamilton might stay below freezing all day.
LOOKING AHEAD: All precipitation will move out of the state later today, and the will clear tonight as the mercury drops into the mid 20s by daybreak tomorrow. Tomorrow will be dry and chilly with a high in the 40s; the sky should be partly sunny. Certainly brighter than today. A good chance we rise into the 50s on Sunday as warm air advection begins, and a warm front moves north of here. The models continue to trend toward a dry day on Sunday; I still think we had better mention at least a chance of a shower late in the day or Sunday night.
NEXT WEEK: A major storm system is still on the table for early next week; confidence is high in the event, and also that we will be in the warm sector of the storm. Parts of the Gulf coast region could see severe storms, to the north a big time snow is likely. As always, nailing down the details will be the tough part, especially this far in advance.
Using a blend of the GFS and the ECMWF, a surface low will track from near Jackson to Birmingham to Athens, GA Monday night into Tuesday; this track would mean the best chance of any severe thunderstorms will be along and south of U.S. 80, where SPC maintains a risk of severe weather for the Gulf coast states late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Heavy snow is likely initially over parts of northern Arkansas, far Northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, and southern parts of Illinois and Indiana.
For the I-20 corridor, heavy rain is a good bet; rainfall amounts exceeding one inch are likely Monday night into Tuesday with this major system. It will be a major news maker with the dual threat of heavy snow north of here, and severe storms near the coast.
LONG RANGE: Very cold air drops into the Deep South following the storm system through the mid-week period. Another storm system will form on the southern periphery of the Arctic air later in the week; the latest model trends have been to shunt that one so far to the south that it doesn’t bother us. Lets get the system early in the week out of there and we can deal with that threat.
Bottom line is that pattern continues to look generally cold and unsettled for the rest of February. Many cities to the north will be setting cold weather records in coming days and weeks for metrics like the number of hours below freezing. No doubt this pattern will keep us on our toes, and offer occasional surprises and sneak attacks.
We had a great crowd at Oneonta last night for Storm Alert 2007… thanks so much for coming out to see us; we will be in Jasper next Thursday night at the CHS Building. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video up by 3:30 this afternoon…. stay warm today!
