The Tuesday afternoon edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:
One a day like today it is a good idea to watch the video to see all of the graphics associated with what I am writing here….
EVENING STORMS: As expected, thunderstorms are redeveloping over the northwest part of Mississippi, and they should expand southward, and then sweep eastward this evening through Alabama. Surface based CAPE values over Mississippi are as high as 1500 j/kg, but we note the best low level veering (0 to 1 km shear) is pulling off to the northeast, which suggests the tornado threat will be minimal with the storms around here during the next 8 hours. Understand we are not saying there is no chance of a tornado, but the biggest problem will come from large hail due to the colder air aloft associated with the upper air short wave. A few bow echoes will be possible in the line and we will have to watch for some potential for damaging straight line winds. Most of the storms will pass through our state this evening from about 3:00 until 8:00 p.m.
SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for the western side of Alabama, generally along and west of I-65, through 8:00 p.m. As the storms move into the eastern part of the state they should weaken due to the loss of daytime heating, and the fact that the air is relatively stable to the east.
TO THE NORTH: A big time snow storm continues to unfold in the general area from St. Louis to Boston. Blizzard warnings are up for central counties of Illinois and Indiana, and we even have ice storm warnings up for parts of West Virginia and Virginia. The Washington, DC area has a chance of significant ice accumulation tonight and tomorrow. See the video for the amazing array of winter storm watches and warnings. As mentioned here weeks ago, for much of the nation this is a winter to remember.
DEEP SOUTH FREEZE: Arctic air will rush into Alabama late tonight and tomorrow in the wake of the departing storm. We stay in the 30s all day tomorrow, and the wind chill index will be below freezing most all day. The NAM has dropped our high in Birmingham to 33 tomorrow… it might not be too far off. Thursday will remain very cold with temperatures having a hard getting out of the low to mid 30s. Our coldest morning will come Friday morning, when most places should drop into the 12 to 17 degree range. Colder valleys might even reach the single digits, especially places like Valley Head, up in DeKalb County, at the foot of Lookout Mountain.
SATURDAY SNOW: The models continue to show a vigorous “Alberta Clipper” rolling through the Deep South over the weekend, with a good chance of light snow for the northern half of Alabama. While the best chance of accumulating snow will be north of U.S. 278 (north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden), some light accumulation is possible as far south as I-20. The GFS keeps the light snow going through Saturday night and into Sunday morning. We will focus on this after we get tonight’s storm out of the way.
WARMER NEXT WEEK: The air will finally warm up a bit next week, and in the longer range the GFS paints a number of severe weather setups, but I have no trust in the model beyond seven days. So much of the continent is so cold, you have to think any warm-ups will be short lived for the rest of February. Cold air intrusions will remain on the table well into March, in my opinion, in this kind of pattern. Not long lasting ones, but ones that can really sting.
I had a great time visiting with the student body this morning at Arcadia Elementary School in Tuscaloosa; be watching for them tomorrow on the KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00…
STORM ALERT 2007: Don’t forget we will be in Jasper for our weather show Thursday at 7:00 p.m. at the CHS building downtown; free t-shirts for the first 500 people, and we will also be giving away 20 NOAA Weather Radio receivers. Of course, there will be some great Alabama weather stories, and you can meet the entire ABC 33/40 weather team.
WEATHER PARTY: See the latest news on this morning’s New Orleans tornado, and much more weather news over on our sister site, weatherparty.com. I see even I am in the news over there today! Be sure and register and you can submit links and vote on them.
J.B. will keep the updates coming this evening as the storms move into Alabama… I will have the next Weather Xtreme video loaded by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
