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I am watching our SKYCAM network as I write this; the site atop the Daniel Building in downtown Birmingham is showing 55 degrees; the warmest spot is Demopolis with 61. The warming trend will continue for the rest of the week, and we should be up in the low 70s by Thursday.
SOME RAIN AHEAD: I note SPC has drawn in a slight risk of severe storms for tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night over East Arkansas, West Tennessee, North Mississippi, and the northwest corner of Alabama. A short wave will move over a relatively unstable airmass, producing showers and storms here tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. The models are little more aggressive with this system; the NAM shows 0.27″ here with the GFS printing 0.66″ for Birmingham. The Lifted Index does drop to -4.5 tomorrow evening, but the surface based CAPE is only 288 j/kg. This isn’t a classic severe weather setup, but we will be watching for strong storms that do move through. The best chance of rain will be from about 3:00 p.m. tomorrow through 12:00 midnight tomorrow night.
That wave moves on to the east, and on Wednesday we will mention a chance of a stray morning shower, with the sky becoming partly sunny by afternoon. Thursday looks like a beautiful, spring-like day with ample sunshine and a high in the low 70s.
TROUBLE BREWING: We ARE looking at a classic severe weather setup for Alabama over the coming weekend. A major upper trough will move out into the nation’s heartland, and a surface cyclone will move from near Lubbock, Texas to Des Moines, Iowa, putting Alabama in a prime position for dangerous thunderstorms.
As expected, the 12Z GFS has slowed the weekend system down, and it now appears the main risk will come on Sunday, and perhaps into Sunday night. Any showers on Friday and Saturday will be few and far between, and we should warm into the upper 60s or low 70s on both of those days.
While there is no doubt the synoptic scale features will favor a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes across the Deep South this weekend (mainly Sunday here in Alabama), the highest risk area will be determined by mesoscale features, and we simply can’t project those this far in advance.
Bottom line is that everyone needs to be sure you have a NOAA Weather Radio receiver in your home and business, and you need to take a little time this week to review your severe weather action plan if a tornado warning is issued. This is severe weather awareness week, anyway, and the annual statewide tornado drill will be held on Wednesday.
NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS has backed off on the idea of a second severe weather threat early next week; it simply brings down much colder air into the state on Tuesday (a week from tomorrow) with some hint of flurries down into the northern part of Alabama. Late season cold snaps are likely in this pattern; the cold won’t give up so easily. The model also advertises another severe weather threat around March 3, followed by yet another shot of cold air. Sure looks busy around here in coming weeks.
STORM ALERT 2007: Don’t forget we will be in Jacksonville this Thursday night for our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama; the show begins at Jacksonville High School at 7:00; be sure and come early for a good seat. We will have free t-shirts for the first 500, and during the show we will be giving away 20 NOAA Weather Radio receivers.
WEATHER PARTY: See the latest weather related news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Fun stuff to read over there.
WEATHER BRAINS: And, we will be recording this week’s WeatherBrains netcast (our weekly 30 minute show) tonight… it will be available late tonight or early tomorrow. Check out the new WeatherBrains web site; thanks to Kevin Selle and David Black for their work on that project. It looks great.
I will have the next Weather Xtreme video ready by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
