The Wednesday morning edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:
TODAY: We will hang on to a chance of showers this morning as a short wave passes on through, but the bulk of the rain should be on to the east by the afternoon hours, and some partial clearing should begin from west to east. Mild weather continues; we should rise into the upper 60s today, with some low 70s possible over in West Alabama if the sun can poke out.
TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Very nice weather for Alabama on these days. We need to mention that the models continue to bring in a dry front late in the day tomorrow, that will drop temperatures a bit on Friday. You will really notice the difference at night; looks like we will need to drop lows down into the mid 30s for early Friday morning. Still, the dry air will warm quickly during the day Friday and we will wind up in the mid 60s Friday afternoon with lots of sunshine.
While we enjoy the beautiful day Friday, we will be watching our major storm coming out of the Rockies, which should bring a severe weather threat to the area from North Texas to Nebraska by Friday night.
WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM: Still looks like Saturday will be dry and mild here with a high near 70 degrees, while a major tornado threat should be unfolding over the Southern Plains; places like East Texas, East Oklahoma, and parts of Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana.
The latests GFS in the house moves the surface low from near Amarillo, Texas Friday to Chicago on Sunday, and shows our best chance of strong to severe storms here in Alabama from about midnight Saturday night through 1:00 p.m. Sunday. Here are three items that might mean a reduced chance of severe weather here:
*The timing of the system; if it comes through Sunday morning it will be at a time when the air is most stable.
*The GFS continue to show only limited instability anyway
*The surface low and negative tilt upper trough are positioned pretty far to the north
BUT, wind fields will be strong and systems like this have produced a very significant amount of severe weather in Alabama in the past. We simply won’t be able to really be more specific until the system actually forms and moves out into the Plains states late this week. Needless to say, we will be watching closely.
NEXT WEEK: Model madness rules; the GFS has backed off again on the idea of a second severe weather threat on Tuesday of next week. SPC still has it on the board in their day 4-8 outlook. Lets just take these one at a time; we will get our weekend system out of the way and then we can focus on next week.
LONG RANGE: The air continues to be brutally cold over much of Canada, and it won’t take much to bring some of it down into the U.S. I think multiple late season cold snaps are a good bet for March, with a number of major storm systems. This is based on the pattern… looks very active.
STORM ALERT 2007: Our annual severe weather awareness tour rolls into Jacksonville tomorrow night; we will be at Jacksonville High School 7:00, but the doors open at 5:00. Get there early for a good seat and a free t-shirt (the first 500 will get one). Bring the whole family; we look forward to seeing you there.
WEATHER PARTY: Remember, you can always see the latest weather news on our sister site, weatherparty.com. And, you are the editor. If you register you can submit links and vote on submitted stories to determine what shows up on the front page.
Also, I encourage you to scroll down and read the post about my friend Matthew Seals and read his story. Very appropriate for Severe Weather Awareness Week in Alabama.
This is a very busy today; I will be driving back down into Alabama’s Black Belt today; I will be speaking at Greensboro West Elementary School this morning. Then, back to the office in Riverchase, and then I will head down to Tuscaloosa for their Severe Weather Awareness Day at McFarland Mall, where I will be doing the weather live at 5:00 and 6:00. I should point out that Brian Peters and Ashley Brand will be at the mall all day if you want to drop by and meet them; I will get there a little before 5:00. I will do my best to crank out an afternoon edition of the Weather Xtreme video… it should be ready by 3:30. Have a great day!
