The Wednesday afternoon ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:
The sky is clearing right on time over the northwest part of the state, and the clearing will progress nicely from west to east during the rest of the afternoon. Delightful weather is ahead tomorrow and Friday, with sunny mild days and clear, chilly nights. A dry cold front will move in here late tomorrow with gusty winds, and slightly cooler air for Friday. You will notice the change Friday morning when we drop into the 34 to 38 degree range. But, we warm up quickly and we should be in the mid 60s Friday afternoon.
WATCHING THE WEST: All eyes will be on the major weather system forming over the western third of the nation in coming days; the 12Z GFS really hasn’t changed much from previous runs. It moves a deepening low from near Amarillo, Texas Friday afternoon to near Chicago at midday Sunday. A major severe weather/tornado event is likely on Saturday across the eastern parts of Texas and Oklahoma, along with southern Missouri and much of Arkansas and Louisiana.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND SITUATION: Let me say up front that the day Saturday looks dry, with mild and windy conditions and a high in the low 70s.
I am very comfortable now saying the best chance of strong to severe storms in Alabama will come from about 12:00 midnight Saturday night through 12:00 Noon Sunday. If the main band of storms rolls through here Sunday morning, that will be a time when the atmosphere will be relatively stable, and hopefully that will prevent a major tornado event here. But, we all have lived through some major Sunday morning tornado events in years past, and we must stay vigilant.
Once the system gets it act together east of the Rocky Mountains on Friday, we will have a much better idea of the mode of storms we can expect here in Alabama when they arrive.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The GFS continues to back off of the idea of a second round of strong to severe storms on Tuesday of next week; looks like we turn colder without any more fireworks. Then, it paints an interesting picture in the March 7-10 time frame with a very cold western U.S. trough, and a stubborn upper ridge over Florida. The leading edge of the Arctic air stalls over Alabama, and the model is suggesting a synoptic scale flash flood event here. But, I have a hard time believing any model solution so far out. It is all voodoo at this point. I firmly believe we will have a number of very sharp late season cold snaps in March; the air remains very, very cold over much of Canada, and it won’t take much to get some of that air down here.
STORM ALERT 2007: We are coming to Jacksonville tomorrow night; we will be at Jacksonville High School for our annual severe weather tour across the state. The doors open at 5:00; you might want to come early to get a good seat. We will have free t-shirts for the first 500 there, and 20 people will win a NOAA Weather Radio receiver.
I had a great time this morning speaking to the 3rd graders at Greensboro West Elementary down in Hale County… be watching for them on the KIDCAM today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00. I took some pictures and will share more about my travels down to the Black Belt on the blog tonight (I was in Uniontown yesterday).
I am about to head back down I-59/20 again for Tuscaloosa; I will be live at McFarland Mall at 5:00 and 6:00 as part of the Tuscaloosa County EMA Severe Weather Awareness Day… drop by and say hello if you are in the area. I will be back in the studio tonight at 10:00. Never a dull moment… thanks for reading as always; I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
