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The only weather problem today is some early morning fog; once that burns off we will have a beautiful day with ample sunshine and a high up in the low 70s. Slightly cooler air slips in here tonight; we drop into the mid to upper 30s early tomorrow, but the dry air will heat nicely during the day and we should wind up in the mid 60s tomorrow afternoon.
TO THE WEST: A major storm system will organize over the next 48 hours, and a surface low will form over the Texas panhandle tomorrow in response to the deep upper trough. Severe thunderstorms will erupt tomorrow night along the I-35 corridor all the way from Austin, Texas to near Omaha, Nebraska.
OUR WEEKEND: On Saturday, the severe weather threat will shift eastward, and places like Shreveport, Little Rock, and Springfield, Missouri will be “under the gun” with the chance of severe storms and a few tornadoes. I still think the daytime here on Saturday will be dry, with winds picking up out of the southwest during the day and a high around 70.
The GFS is not slowing down the big storm system; if anything it is a little faster. We will adjust the timing a bit, and now forecast the primary severe weather threat for Alabama from about 9:00 Saturday night through 9:00 Sunday morning. The forecast instability values are only so-so for severe weather, and hopefully that will prevent a major threat. A squall line will roll through here during that twelve hour window with the threat of strong, damaging straight line winds. And, of course, any discreet thunderstorms that form ahead of the line could produce a tornado in this kind of pattern. Once the system actually gets its act together on the east side of the Rocky Mountains we will know much more about the threat here.
NEXT WEEK: The first half of next week looks pretty benign with dry conditions and near normal temperatures. Another major storm system, however, is due in here at the end of next week, and that one might bring another risk of severe storms. Welcome to the spring tornado season….
STORM ALERT 2007: We will be in Jacksonville tonight for our annual severe weather awareness road show; the doors open at 5:00 and the program begins at 7:00 at Jacksonville High School. The first 500 will get a free t-shirt, and we will be giving away 20 NOAA Weather Radio receivers. We hope to see you there.
NEED A WEATHER RADIO RECEIVER? ABC 33/40 is teaming up with Midland Radio to offer an excellent NOAA Weather Radio for about 50 percent off the regular retail price; these receivers have the new digital technology (SAME – Specific Area Message Encoding) which allows you to choose the counties for which the alarm sounds. The are in all Publix and Handy TV locations across this part of Alabama (the Birmingham/Tuscaloosa/Anniston TV market), and are available for only $29.95. This is a great bargain, and every Alabama household needs one!
JOIN THE PARTY: Visit our sister site, weatherparty.com, anytime for the latest weather related news. If you have a good story, just submit it. And, while you are there be sure and vote on stories already submitted. Always something interesting to read over there.
Scroll down and you can read more about my travels to the Black Belt in recent days… today Brian Peters and I will be at the annual Career Fair at Trace Crossings Elementary in Hoover, then we will board AirLink 33/40 (our helicopter) for the flight over to Jacksonville. Due to the schedule today Brian will handle the afternoon blog discussion and produce the associated Weather Xtreme video. Enjoy the day!