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If you have not been outside even a little bit this afternoon, you are missing one fine day. Temperatures at noon time were running in the mid and upper 60s with a beautiful blue sky and good northwesterly wind. Temperatures were a tad warmer down in the Alexander City-Auburn area where readings were in the lower 70s. That area was just ahead of a dry cold front moving through Central Alabama. It will help to clip off a few degrees today but will be most noticeable in tomorrow mornings lows. Those will be dropping into the mid and upper 30s. Fortunately the highs should recover nicely back into the mid and upper 60s Friday afternoon and into the weekend.
However, as we are experiencing some really nice weather, a new and very potent storm system is taking shape on the West Coast. A strong trough with a cut-off low will move across the Rockies tomorrow with a sizeable chunk of the Southern Plains now outlooked for a moderate risk of severe weather. A number of factors look very positive for severe weather, but a cap will be in place which may inhibit the initiation of thunderstorms. Isolated supercells should develop first but with the help of the approaching cut-off low, the severe weather threat may transition from isolated supercells to an MCS pattern with increased coverage of storms and a mixed mode of severe weather.
The big question at this time of the year will be how far inland the atmosphere can really destabilize as the storm system moves into the Central US. The 850-millibar chart shows a nice low level jet along with pretty good warming, but the front is likely to come through Central Alabama between midnight and 10 am, so this could help to keep thunderstorms below severe limits. It will be something to watch closely to see how warm and moist we can become on Saturday. The GFS has been pretty consistent in the last several runs of bringing the system through Central Alabama at an earlier hour.
The front blasts through the state Sunday reaching Central Georgia by midday Sunday. Fortunately we won’t be seeing especially cold air with this system with temperatures the first of next week expected to remain in the upper 50s and 60s for highs and above the freezing mark for lows.
Yet another system follows quickly behind this one with the possibility of thunderstorms and another round of severe weather on Thursday of next week. The GFS currently shows a very similar weather pattern to the one expected to unfold Saturday and Sunday. This next system could be a bit colder with the potential for some more freezing weather by next weekend.
Longer range forecasts suggest mild weather following the first weekend of March. However, they also show a trough position back over the western US, so the pattern remains relatively active.
Confidence remains fairly high in the threat of thunderstorms in the Saturday night and early Sunday time frame. However, the seriousness of this threat is still up for grabs. It’s one we’ll all want to watch and be alert about especially if it should come through in the early morning hours. Good time to consider getting a NOAA Weather Radio if you don’t already have one. We’re teaming with Publix and Handy TV to offer you a good quality weather radio for a reasonable price. I hope that they will soon be available at all of those outlets.
Heading to Jacksonville tonight for the fourth of five Storm Alert stops. Looking forward to seeing all the folks in the northeast section of our viewing area. Hope you can make it if you live in that area.
-Brian-
