…Severe weather threat tonight with damaging winds and possible tornadoes…
We continue to monitor the development of an unfolding severe weather event for Alabama and places to our west.
A significant tornado outbreak is possible this afternoon and evening over the Arklatex into much of the northwestern quarter of Mississippi. The moderate risk area as delineated by the Storm Prediction Center goes very close to the northwest corner of Alabama.
A PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado Watch is in effect into the afternoon hours.
Temperatures are nearing 70F over parts of the Arklatex with dewpoints in the 60s and an impressive 70 knot flow at 5000 feet. We will see some strong to violent tornadoes this afternoon across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. Look for a new watch soon to the north and east of the current watch.
We will monitor developments to the west and give you updates through the afternoon and into tonight as the activity reaches western sections of the state.
Currently across Alabama, radar shows some light showers over Central Alabama. They are barely reaching the ground, if at all. Some sprinkles are probably being felt across western parts of Jefferson County and will affect parts of the Birmingham metro area during the next hour as they move east.
Temperatures are climbing through the 50s, but dew points are still very low, in the 20s. Here are the 10 a.m. surface observations.
A cloud deck is at about 8000 feet. There are a few breaks in the clouds, especially over East Alabama, and some over eastern Mississippi. Temperatures will rise into the upper 60s to near 70 across the area this afternoon. Those dewpoints will being rising on the back of increasing southeasterly winds.
Those winds are beginning to pick up across Central Alabama and will reach speeds of 15-30 mph this afternoon, prompting the issuance of a Lake Wind Advisory. Boaters on area lakes and streams should exercise caution.
Thunderstorms will develop to the west of Alabama this afternoon and move into western sections of the state during the evening hours. We expect them to be in the mode of individual supercells, especially during the early parts of the event. Instability will be the wild card. If moisture levels cannot recover, instability will be correspondingly low. But, it won’t take much to make those dewpoints rise given the strong low and mid level wind fields this afternooon and tonight. Without question, the shear levels will be high, so in any case, we will have storms that spin like tops, and that means tornadoes.
The system may transition into a large squall line with a high potential for widespread damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
In any case, this weather system has the potential to produce deadly weather conditions tonight across Alabama. Since many people will be asleep, we want to really push folks to use today to map out and rehearse their personal tornado plan. Mobile home residents should make contingency plans to move to substantial structures tonight well in advance of the arrival of the storms.
If you don’t have a NOAA Weatheradio, now would be a great time to get one.
