Here is an update on the severe weather situation as of 2:30 p.m….
Alabama continues to look at a severe weather event during the night tonight, including the likelihood of damaging winds and the possibility of tornadoes.
The latest developments…
…some significant clearing is occurring across parts of the state. It is most pronounced in West Alabama from western Tuscaloosa County down through Greene and Sumter Counties with a thin area to the north through Fayette County. More clearing is occurring in the I-65 corridor from Birmingham south. I am experiencing the first significant clearing of the day at Spain Park off Valleydale Road. This potential warming is not good.
…the wildcard remains moisture. Moisture levels are steadily rising over Central Alabama as winds increase out of the southeast in response to a strong low over Kansas that is lifting northeast.
…to the west, a new PDS Tornado Watch has been issued. It goes until 9 p.m. and comes pretty close up to the Alabama border. Tornado watches now cover most of northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, extreme Southwest Tennessee and northern and central Mississippi.
…lines of thunderstorms continue to the west over southern Arkansas and Louisiana ahead of a strengthening cold front. A secondary low pressure center is over Arkansas, with a warm front pulling northeastward across Mississippi. This warm front is the leading edge of the richer 50+ degree dewpoints. Thunderstorms are associated with this warm front and may become severe as the afternoon rolls on. Ahead of the main cold front, in the 60+ degree dewpoint air over northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas, supercell storms with isolated strong to violent tornadoes are possible as very intense wind fields start to impinge on the area.
…two tornado warnings are in effect in the Arklatex, including DeSoto Parish in Louisiana northwest of Mansfield and in southern Arkansas. The DeSoto Parish storm seems to be getting better organized. Several radar indications of rotation are starting to show up on radar.
…So far, not many reports of severe weather. The only tornado so far was in Russell, Kansas, back near the main low.
As the night rolls on, the airmass over Alabama will continue to destablize. Thunderstorms will begin to fire ahead of the main line over Mississippi and propagate into westeern sections of Alabama this evening. They will most certainly be rotating. The only question is the amount of instability. Even with lower instability, we can expect isolated, fast hitting tornadoes. There is no question that we will have damaging wind incidents. With increased instability we could see more significant tornadoes.
All Alabamians will want to review their severe weather safety plans, think ahead for the overnight and stay in constant contact with a reliable source of severe weather information. Weather radio day is today. If you don’t have one, please get one.
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