Checking the beat with some headlines and excerpts from statements from NWS offices around the Southeast…
From the morning BMX discussion…
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
339 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007
.DISCUSSION…
NOT MUCH LEFT BUT THE WAITING…WATCHING…ANALYZING…AND
ADJUSTING. THE STAGE IS RAPIDLY BECOMING SET FOR A POTENTIAL VERY
HIGH IMPACT SEVERE WEATHER/TORNADO EVENT ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY BREAKING OUT THIS MORNING ARE A RELATIVE
NUISANCE COMPARED TO WHAT COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOKS AND STATEMENTS FROM SPC DESCRIBE THE SCENARIO VERY WELL…
AND NO NEED TO REHASH THINGS. EXPECTED TIMING REMAINS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED…WITH GREATEST THREAT TIME FROM ABOUT NOON TO 8 PM (WEST
TO EAST). NOT TRYING TO NEEDLESSLY HYPE THIS THING AND CREATE A
PANIC. BUT ALL FOLKS NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON…AND WILL COUNT ON OUR PARTNERS (MEDIA…
EMA…AND OTHERS) TO HELP GET THE WORD OUT.
Form Huntsville…
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
315 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007
…MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY…
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND ENERGY…GULF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS HOWEVER…THE TORNADIC
THREAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA
UNDER A “HIGH RISK” FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS…WITH A HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE PROBABILITY FOR TORNADOES. THIS MEANS…THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR SUPERCELLS…CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES…DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. IF CONDITIONS COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT…
SOME OF THESE TORNADOES WILL BE STRONG.
Also from Huntsville…thier morning discussion…AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
304 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007
.DISCUSSION…
MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF CWA IS IN A RARE HIGH RISK AREA FOR THE
DAY ONE OUTLOOK. ATTM OUR WRN 3 COUNTIES (LAUDERDALE/COLBERT/FRANKLIN)
ARE IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 AM. NO SEVERE WEATHER
TO REPORT ACROSS THE CWA SO FAR…ONLY PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.
CURRENTLY TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINT RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 40S IN NWRN AL TO MID 30S IN NERN AL. LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WX WILL BE MID MRNG THRU EARLY EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS AFTN…WITH 8H WINDS ARND 50 KTS/TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S/HELICITIES 500 TO 600…SEVERE WX
LOOKS TO BE A SURE BET. ALSO THINKING MIGHT SEE ENOUGH SUN BY AFTN
TO ADD MORE ENERGY TO THE SITUATION. ATTM WILL GO LOWER 70S TODAY
BUT IF WE GET MORE SUN THAN EXPECTED COULD SEE MID 70S..SINCE WE
ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR TODAY DUE TO THE HIGH RISK OUTLOOK OVER OUR CWA…WE
WILL HAVE BIGGER FISH TO FRY.
From Jackson…
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
410 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007
…SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI…
.SHORT TERM…TODAY AND TONIGHT…OVERALL…LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS THINKING ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF TODAY`S SEVERE WEATHER
SCENARIO…AND MARCH LOOKS TO COME IN LIKE A LION FOR OUR AREA.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE LOW OVER WESTERN MISSOURI WITH THE
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE LINE OF 60
DEGREE DEW POINTS EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTH OF MERIDIAN TO JUST SOUTH
OF GREENVILLE. STRENGTHENING WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS LED TO THE
DEVELOP OF SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN OUR CWA WITH THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR NORTH. OUR CWA HAS BEEN CAPPED AS SEEN ON THE 06Z THU JAN
SOUNDING…BUT THIS CAP IS WEAKENING AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER OUR CWA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL JUST NORTH OF OUR
CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING.
A QUICK-EVOLVING SCENARIO IS STILL EXPECTED TODAY. AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST…A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE OUR WAY. AN INTENSE
MID/UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PUNCH EAST OVER
OUR CWA. GULF RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO
OUR CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION OVER OUR CWA
SHOULD BE ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE
OUTBREAK…GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION. STRONG WIND FIELDS/SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL…
INCLUDING A RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE
DAMAGING WINDS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY…MOISTURE…LIFT AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL TAKE PLACE
OVER EASTERN MS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC HAS PLACED THIS AREA IN A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY. THE
REMAINDER OF OUR CWA IS IN A MODERATE RISK. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WX
WILL END WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT/DRY-LINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW STORMS IN THE EASTERN MOST ZONES EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
OF SECONDARY CONCERN IS THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY. HAVE EXTENDED
THE AREA A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AS STRONG GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD REACH
CRITERIA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM VICKSBURG TO GRENADA.
And the Public Severe Weather Outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center….
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007
…A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS LIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY…LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES.
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS ALSO FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TORNADOES…SOME WHICH MAY BE STRONG AND LONG
TRACKED…ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THIS
AREA IS IN A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
ALABAMA
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA…THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES.
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM…ALONG WITH VERY
STRONG JET LEVEL WINDS. AT THE SAME TIME…STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE RAPIDLY TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SEVERE STORMS ARE ALREADY ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS…AND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING…THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE.
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THESE STORMS
WILL BE IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT STORMS TO ROTATE AND SPAWN
LONG TRACKED…STRONG TORNADOES.
STRONG TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TENNESSEE AND GEORGIA….WHILE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
TO LISTEN TO RADIO…TELEVISION…AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES…WARNINGS…AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
So as you can tell…we will have a significant threat of severe weather across the area today…please take the situation seriously…
