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The computer models and forecasts coming from HPC sure hint at a good rain event across Alabama during the next 18 to 24 hours, but “you don’t forecast rain in the middle of a drought”, and I am still not convinced we see that much rain around here. The NAM is now printing 0.76″ of rain for Birmingham (down considerably from the 12Z run yesterday), while the GFS shows 0.42″ (also down from the 12Z run). Needless to say, I am siding more with the GFS…
THIS MORNING: A large mass of rain and storms continues to move along the Gulf coast this morning, and that will block the inflow of moisture into this part of Alabama, so it sure looks like most of the morning will be rain-free. I do think we will have some showers around this afternoon and tonight as a cold front approaches from the north, and maybe even a little thunder and lightning. But, once again, with relatively weak upper air dynamics I am afraid that rain amounts will be rather disappointing. Keep in mind our rainfall deficit now in Birmingham is up to 6.33 inches, so we really need some rain. The best chance of showers will be from about 2:00 p.m. today through 6:00 a.m. tomorrow.
TURNING COLDER: The rain will end early tomorrow, and much cooler air will flow in here. Highs will be only in the 50s tomorrow, and by Saturday morning we will be well down in the 30s. The 00Z GFS now has Birmingham at 33 degrees at daybreak Saturday. Look out for a light freeze for the colder spots. The weekend will feature a good supply of sunshine both days, but the weather will remain cool. In fact, the GFS is now suggesting a high in the 55 to 59 degree range both Saturday and Sunday, and temperatures down in the low to mid 30s early Sunday morning.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: We will begin to warm up nicely next week, and a significant storm will form on the east side of the Rocky Mountains by the middle of the week. Looks like most of the rain with that system will remain well to the west of Alabama through Wednesday; in fact the 00Z GFS doesn’t bring in the main band of rain and storms in here until the following weekend (March 24-25). Toward the end of the month, we have to note the 00Z GFS shows a very cold upper trough forming over the eastern U.S. (around March 28-29), with some surface low moving from the northern Gulf of Mexico over to the Atlantic coast. We have actually seen that before, and we will be watching for trends. But, you know what that is for now, all VOODOO.
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Another road trip lined up today… I will be headed into deep West Alabama to speak to the students at Pickens County High School at Reform; that will be a fun drive. I see David Black was in Pickens County this week as well… scroll down for details from his trip and some very interesting pictures. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted here by 3:30 this afternoon!
