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STILL DRY: Today is the 10th day in a row with no measurable rain for Alabama, and our rain deficit for the year has increased to 8.05 inches. Our friends up at the National Weather Service in Huntsville just issued this timely statement:
…INCREASED WILDFIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON…
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME MORE DANGEROUS FOR WILDFIRES TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S…DROPPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 30 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE ALSO PICKED UP…SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 15 MPH…WITH GUSTS TO 20
TO 25 MPH.
THE COMBINATION OF VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS POSE A THREAT FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING. DRY VEGETATION MAY
EASILY IGNITE AND FIRE COULD QUICKLY SPREAD UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.
THUS EXTRA PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANY OUTDOOR BURNING IS
PLANNED THIS AFTERNOON.
This pretty much goes for all 67 Alabama counties… any outdoor burning is not advised under these conditions.
For tomorrow and Wednesday we will continue to mention some risk of isolated showers with the weakening system ejecting out of Southwest Texas, but most communities will remain dry. Highs on both of these days will be in the low 80s. Thursday will be warm and dry with a high in the mid 80s.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The GFS is advertising a wedge type setup on Friday; an easterly flow is expected to bring high temperatures down about 10 degrees, into the low to mid 70s. For now we will maintain a dry forecast on Friday as we will be watching a strong upper trough coming out of the Rockies.
That upper trough should finally bring a good chance of rain and storms to Alabama over the weekend. The 12Z run, as expected, has slowed the system down, and it suggests the best chance of rain this weekend will come from about 1:00 p.m. Saturday through 4:00 a.m. Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch look likely, and there might be some risk of strong to severe storms based on the upper air support. But, the wedge cooling might prevent instability from getting out of hand.
The sky should clear on Sunday as the rain moves on to the east, and we get into a dry slot. Highs for the weekend should be in the 70s.
LONG RANGE: The 12Z GFS continues to trend of showing good rain events for Alabama on April 4 and April 8, with a change to colder air following each rain day. This, of course, is in voodoo land, so don’t get too hung up on details on anything beyond seven days. But I do think the pattern flip will favor some good rain events in April along with some pretty sharp, but temporary cold spells.
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I had a great time today speaking to the kids at Ivalee Elementary in the western part of Etowah County; be looking for them, and my pals from Holy Spirit School in Tuscaloosa (I saw them late last week) on the KIDCAM today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video ready by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
