An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…
Scroll down and see the image of the Bagley tornado yesterday taken by Bruce Carpenter… that tornado was very close to Bagley Jr. High School; we are fortunate that nobody was hurt in that storm.
This morning a dry and stable airmass is over Alabama, setting the stage for very nice spring weather today and tomorrow with ample sunshine, mild afternoons, and cool nights. The high today will be close to 70, and low 70s tomorrow. Not nearly as warm as the models were suggesting a few days ago (at one point the GFS was showing 85 for Birmingham tomorrow!), but not bad at all.
TO THE WEST: Another big storm system will get its act together during the next two days. A blizzard warning is up for the southern part of Colorado, and severe storms could fire up later today or tonight over West Texas and West Oklahoma. Tomorrow, SPC has a moderate risk of severe weather up for the general area from Dallas, Texas to Monroe, Louisiana, with a slight risk as far east as the Alabama/Mississippi border. We will watch all of this unfold since that system will impact Alabama on Saturday.
STORMY SATURDAY: Not much change in our thinking for Saturday; but how the mesoscale features unfold will really determine the degree of the severe weather threat. One big question is the instability; we have to wonder if we can get the high dewpoints back in here for the event. But it sure happened yesterday as dewpoints surged from the 40s to the 60s in a matter of hours, and it certainly can happen on Saturday.
The upper trough remains positively tilted, and the surface low really doesn’t wind up until it gets northeast of Alabama Saturday night and Sunday. So, not exactly a classic setup, but certainly one that can bring severe weather to Alabama. SPC has all of Alabama in a slight risk of severe weather for Saturday, and we will maintain a good chance of showers and storms. We are still looking at the best chance of thunderstorms in the 6:00 a.m. until 4:00 p.m. time frame. We do note the NAM is a little slower than the GFS; it keeps the rain over East Alabama until about 7:00 p.m.
I am not very confident rainfall amounts will be all that high on Saturday due to the fast motion of the storms. Yesterday, many Alabama communities didn’t get over a tenth of an inch (our SKYCAM in downtown Birmingham measured only 0.04″), and I am afraid some people might be disappointed on Saturday. Still, we will mention amounts of one-half to one inch on an average basis. We will take all we can get.
SUNDAY/MONDAY: The 00Z run of the GFS now shows the surface low north of Columbia, South Carolina on Sunday. If this is correct, wrap-around clouds could cover much of Alabama on Sunday with a chilly north breeze. If the clouds do linger much of the day, North Alabama might have a hard time getting out of the 40s. Even if we do clear, the high will be only in the mid to upper 50s. And, the GFS is now printing 36 for Birmingham early Monday. This means the colder valleys could see some scattered frost, and maybe even a light freeze in some spots.
LONG RANGE: We will mention a chance of showers on Wednesday of next week, but the GFS paints a weakening upper trough with no severe weather potential. Still some hint of a strong system moving into the state later in the month; the 00Z run has it around April 27, but no way to resolve the timing this far in advance.
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I will try to post more viewer pictures shortly… thanks to everyone for sending them. Today I will be down in Columbiana speaking to the kids at Elvin Hill Elementary; then it back into the office where I will have the afternoon Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30!
