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As expected, severe thunderstorms are firing up over parts of Texas and Oklahoma early this afternoon as a major spring storm moves out of the southern Rockies. SPC maintains a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and tonight in the broad area from Dallas/Fort Worth to Monroe, Louisiana. This includes places like Shreveport, LA, Lufkin, TX, Tyler, TX, and College Station, TX. Some of the storms in this region could produce significant tornadoes between now and midnight tonight. We will be watching with interest.
Showers and storms will move into Alabama tomorrow, and parameters remain in place for the potential for strong to severe storms statewide. SPC continues a moderate risk of severe weather over the southern half of Alabama tomorrow, generally south of U.S. 80, while a slight risk extends northward to the Alabama/Tennessee border.
Here are some projected severe weather parameters for Birmingham, valid at 3:00 p.m. tomorrow from NAM extraction:
Surface Based CAPE: 523 j/kg
2M Dewpoint 66
Lifted Index: -1.5
0 to 3 km Helicity: 283 m2/s2
850 mb Wind: 37 knots
500 mb Wind: 63 knots
200 mb Wind: 135 knots
Really not much change from our thinking early this morning. A few showers and storms should form tomorrow morning along the northward moving warm front, and some of those could be strong to severe. But, the primary risk will come in the 12:00 to 7:00 p.m. time frame when the main dynamics will approach. All modes of severe thunderstorms will be possible during those seven hours, but there is no doubt the greatest risk of significant tornadoes will be down in the moderate risk area over the southern half of the state.
Once you go north of U.S. 278, instability values really drop off, which will limit the severe weather risk up in that part of the state (north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden).
The models and the guys at HPC remain rather aggressive with the amount of rain expected tomorrow; the NAM extraction is showing 1.74″, while the GFS prints an amazing 2.53″. My gut feeling says the amounts will be closer to one inch, but I sure hope my gut feeling is wrong and everyone else is right.
SUNDAY/MONDAY: Sunday promises to be a cold and blustery day. Clouds will linger most of the day, and temperatures will have a hard time reaching the low 50s. I expect some Northeast Alabama communities won’t get out of the 40s Sunday. Then, as the sky clears and the wind dies down, we will drop into the 30s by daybreak Monday. The GFS shows 37, and the NAM 35 for Birmingham early Monday morning. These numbers look pretty good; the colder valleys will most likely see some frost and a light freeze.
LONG RANGE: At this point much of next week looks rather benign, just a few showers possible Tuesday night and Wednesday with a weakening upper trough. Most of the significant rain with that feature will be over far South Alabama. The next major system shows up around April 27 on the GFS.
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I had a great time today visiting with the 2nd graders at South Shades Crest Elementary School’; be looking for them on the KIDCAM today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00!
We will have frequent updates on the blog during the next 48 hours, so stay tuned….
