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The main focus for weather enthusiasts this morning is the developing scenario for a possible round of severe storms for Central Alabama today. Radar this morning was looking good for us to get rain – most rain I’ve seen on radar for quite some time. It would appear that Central Alabama is likely to get around 1 inch of rain which will certainly help with the rain deficit that we have – it won’t cure the drought but it will ease it a bit.
As to severe storms, it is the familiar scenario we’ve seen for much of 2007 – where will the instability be? As I write this, moisture is still limited across Central Alabama with dew points mainly in the lower 40s. A warm front was lying across Alabama from about Meridian to just south of Montgomery. South of the front dew points were in the 50s and 60s. That front is expected to move slowly north as the surface low in northern Louisiana moves east-northeast across the northern half of Alabama. So we should see dew points rising throughout the morning. The critical question will be how far north that low level moisture will advect. In Central Mississippi, dew points had reached the mid 60s as far north as Greenwood and Greenville. There appears to be plenty of shear to rotate storms if we can get them to become surface based.
People from the Tennessee Valley southward should be alert to changing weather conditions today. The area from about Clanton southward is under a moderate risk for severe weather today. If nothing else, a squall line is likely to bring strong storms across Central Alabama during the day with rain exiting the eastern sections by early this evening.
The weather goes dry once again after this round of storms and turns sharply colder. Sunday will be a blustery day with highs only into the lower 50s. In fact, area north of Birmingham could struggle to reach the upper 40s.
And Monday morning that frost word could raise it’s ugly head. If you have tender vegetation susceptible to the cold, you may need to take some precautions on Sunday night and Monday morning. Monday morning should be our coldest morning with lows reaching the lower 30s with some spots experiencing frost.
A warming trend sets in after that with highs climbing back to the 70s by the end of the week. A weakening disturbance at mid-week promises another chance at some rain, but I expect that to be scattered with not everyone getting wet.
The westerlies retreat northward by the end of the week and with a weak ridge in place across the eastern US, we can look forward to a mild, dry weekend.
Be sure to tune to ABC 3340 today for the latest information on the weather situation. You can check the Blog for frequent updates on what’s happening. I hope everyone has a great weekend. Be sure to be weather-wise and weather safe.
-Brian-
