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Drought conditions continue to worsen across Alabama, and I am afraid the rain Wednesday night into Thursday won’t really make much of a dent in the huge rain deficiency for the year, which is now over one foot (12.01″) based on data from the Birmingham Airport. Having a one foot rain deficit in April is not a good thing, and doesn’t bode well for the summer.
We stay warm and dry today, while a big severe weather event unfolds for the nation’s mid-section. There is a moderate risk of severe weather today for parts of the northern Texas panhandle, Southwest Kansas, and the eastern plains of Colorado, and then a moderate risk tomorrow from near Paris, Texas to eastern Kansas; this includes places like Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Wichita. The storm chasers will be out in full force.
The models are becoming a little more aggressive with the chance of a few showers tomorrow and Wednesday as moisture levels increase and a weak surface front from a departing short wave drifts into far North Alabama. However, the main action will remain west of the state.
The main band of rain and storms will be closer to Alabama on Wednesday; a slight severe weather risk extends into the northwest corner of Alabama, but the system will be weakening and a major severe weather threat is not expected here. At this time, it looks like the best chance of organized rain and thunderstorms for us will come from about 9:00 p.m. Wednesday night through 12:00 Noon Thursday. The QPF graphic suggests 1/2 to 3/4″ for the I-20 corridor, and for once in recent weeks I think they are right on the money. Up in the Tennessee Valley, places like Huntsville and Muscle Shoals might see one inch or more. At least this rain will settle the dust and make the grass a little greener. All of the showers will be out of here by late Thursday afternoon.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The idea of a second wave of rain over the weekend is long gone. The upper trough will phase, but that happens east of Alabama and it now looks like we can promise beautiful weather for NASCAR fans headed to Talladega on Saturday and Sunday, with ample sunshine both days and with afternoon temperatures peaking somewhere between 75 and 80.
LONG RANGE: No real hope for any extended, drought-buster type rain event through the next 15 days. The GFS does hint at a nice rain event around May 6 with a weakening front drifting in here, but that is way out in voodoo land.
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This morning I am on the road to West Alabama; I will be speaking at Moundville Elementary School; I will be back in the office by early afternoon and the afternoon Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon!
