An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…
As advertised, today has been a mostly sunny and warm day for Alabama; Birmingham reached 80 degrees at 2:00. Nothing on the radar, but that will change as the week rolls along…
TOMORROW: While a major tornado outbreak could very well unfold for places like Dallas/Fort Worth, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Wichita tomorrow, a weak front from the old wave over eastern Canada could trigger a few scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms. The best chance of these will be along and north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. The southern two-thirds of Alabama should remain generally dry, although clouds will be more prevalent.
WEDNESDAY: More severe weather is possible west of Alabama as the upper trough gets closer, but it still looks like most Alabama communities will remain dry during the day Wednesday with a mix of sun and clouds and a high near 80. The 12Z GFS is coming in a little slower with the storm system, and it should be well past midnight Wednesday night before the organized showers and storms arrive.
THURSDAY: This is the day with the best chance of showers and storms statewide. The latest QPF from HPC is a little more aggressive with rain amounts for North Alabama; it is suggesting totals between one and one an a half inches. I sure hope that works out since the rain deficiency for the year is now a little over one foot in Birmingham. A few strong storms will be possible on Thursday, but wind fields will be weakening and at this point a major threat doesn’t seem especially likely.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: Just about the time it looked safe to eliminate the chance of rain on Saturday, the 12Z GFS brings back a sharp upper impulse and a few showers Saturday afternoon and Saturday night over the northern third of the state. For now we will ignore that and leave our forecast dry Friday through Sunday with highs mostly in the 70s, and lows in the 50s (40s for the cooler spots). If the showers continue to show up for Saturday afternoon on the 00Z run this evening we might consider putting them back in the forecast, but even if they do happen the rain should be light.
LONG RANGE: Unfortunately the 12Z GFS really doesn’t show any major rain event after Thursday all the way through May 9. We will keep searching in future runs…
DROUGHT UPDATE: You can see the latest graphic from the NOAA Drought Monitor on the Weather Xtreme video; a pretty good part of North Alabama is in an “extreme drought”, while South Alabama has no drought conditions at all thanks to beneficial rain in recent weeks (especially the event on Saturday April 14, when some spots received over three inches of rain).
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page.
I had a great time down in Hale County this morning; I spoke to the third graders at Moundville Elementary School. Be sure and watch for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
