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SPC maintains a moderate risk of severe weather for places like Dallas/Fort Worth, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Wichita this afternoon and tonight as a major spring storm moves out of the Rockies. It will be very interesting to watch this whole thing unfold…. could be a major tornado outbreak for our friends in that part of the country with a number of impressive severe weather parameters in place.
Around here today, we will continue to mention a chance of showers mainly for the northern quarter (mostly north of Birmingham); we have a nice cluster of showers on radar early this morning over the northwest corner of the state from near Hamilton northward to Muscle Shoals. Otherwise, the sky will be mostly cloudy today (with a few peeks of sun along the way) with a high not too far from 80.
TOMORROW: Most of Alabama will be dry tomorrow with afternoon temperatures soaring into the low to mid 80s with a mixture of sun and clouds. More severe storms will develop to the west; a slight risk covers all of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. The risk extends into far West Alabama for any storms that move in here late tomorrow night.
THURSDAY: This will be our big day for showers and thunderstorms. The latest QPF guidance (for the next five days) from HPC suggests 2.5 inches for the northwest corner of the state, with amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch for the I-20/59 corridor (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden). The 84 hour extraction of the 00Z NAM run shows a total of 1.20″ for Birmingham. The rain deficit for Birmingham is up to 12.16″, so we will take all the rain we can get.
Also, SPC has all of the state in a slight risk of severe weather on Thursday. While the wind fields will be weakening, the negative tilt upper trough still might have enough punch remaining for a few isolated severe storms, especially if the sun can break out a bit Thursday morning before they arrive. In terms of timing; a shower or storm will be possible at any time Thursday, but the primary window for rain seems to be from about 10:00 a.m. until 5:00 p.m.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY: At this time these days continue to look dry and mild with highs in the 70s. We will watch another upper level impulse to the west of Alabama.
SUNDAY: The latest GFS tries to squeeze out a few showers on Sunday with that next impulse moving across the state. Moisture will be limited, but there will be some decent upward velocity, and we might have to insert a chance of a shower Sunday if this trend continues on the 12Z run. No big deal, but this is race weekend at Talladega and that is a very important forecast, needless to say.
LONG RANGE: The 00Z GFS advertises the next potential for beneficial rain around May 6, but the model consistency has not been good in the longer range.
GLOBAL WARMING: What do YOU think? The Hollywood and Washington crowd are getting all the attention; and there continues to be very robust debate within the meteorological community. Come on over to our new forum called ClimateBrains and let us know what you think.
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. Lots of very interesting reading over there as always.
I am off to Tuscaloosa this morning to speak to the kids at Verner Elementary School. This is a special visit for me since that is MY old school! I attended Verner in the 5th and 6th grade; back when the school was across the street (10th Street) from Denny Stadium. I attended first through fourth grade at W.O. Parmer Elementary School down in Greenville (in Butler County between Montgomery and Mobile). I should mention that John Oldshue also attended Verner Elementary.
I will be back in the office by early afternoon and will have the afternoon Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30!
