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No doubt we will have a few showers or storms across our state during the next four days, but the hope for a widespread, soaking rain event remains very dim. Not good for a place where the drought is considered to be “extreme” in many areas.
TODAY/TOMORROW: We have one old upper level low over southeast Missouri, which continue to slowly fizzle out, and a stronger one over Texas. Still, there isn’t much upward vertical velocity in the atmosphere across Alabama today, so any showers should remain rather isolated. We actually have a few on radar this morning over the northwest corner of the state, but I am just not convinced we see that much action later today around here. The chance of any one spot getting wet today is about one in eight.
The 00Z models still look pretty dry tomorrow, although the 06Z GFS goes nuts with convective feedback. I think the drier solution is correct; a few widely scattered showers could pop up tomorrow afternoon, but once again I think more neighborhoods will be a “miss” rather than a “hit”.
THE WEEKEND: Saturday should be the day with the best coverage of scattered showers and storms with the old Texas upper low nearby. If you have an outdoor event planned on Saturday, we don’t expect a wash-out, or an all day kind of rain. Just be aware that a shower will be possible at times, with the best chance coming during the afternoon and evening hours.
The 00Z NAM does show 0.53″ for Birmingham through 84 hours, with most of that on Saturday. But, the GFS, which is usually the wettest model, looks much drier. Then, on Sunday, showers should thin out again as an upper ridge begins to build over Alabama.
NEXT WEEK: Upper ridging is the story, and the weather looks generally dry for much of the week. Our only hope for rain is the development of a few isolated afternoon showers along the way, and even the chance for those doesn’t look good. The bottom line is that the drought conditions should generally worsen for North Alabama during the next 7 to 10 days.
GLOBAL WARMING? Is the warming in recent years man-made, or mostly natural? Most people have read my opinion here, but we want to hear from you. Our ClimateBrains forum is running with some very interesting discussions. We want everyone to chime in on both sides of the issue. Something the mainstream media seemingly doesn’t allow on this subject for whatever reason.
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page.
I will be speaking today at the National Day of Prayer Luncheon at Gardendale’s First Baptist Church… I will be back in the office by early afternoon and will have the afternoon edition of the Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30. Enjoy the day!
