Severe thunderstorms are expected to fire rapidly later this morning across the Plains states, where a large moderate and high risk outlook for severe weather is in effect.
A new tornado watch has just been issued for parts of Kansas and Nebraska. It goes until 10 p.m. tonight. It is a PDS or Particularly Dangerous Situation Watch.
This watch carries a greater than 95% probability of one or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes.
Instability is already high across western Nebraska, western Kansas and the Texas Panhandle. CAPE values are already 3000-4000 j/kg, which is very high for so early in the day. Dew points are in the middle to upper 60s.
There are breaks in the clouds over the area, allowing for sunshine, which will further increase those instability values.
There is a weak capping inversion that will act like a lid on the atmosphere for a short time. There is plenty of shear for organized supercell storms. Storms that break through the cap will go crazy, quickly becoming severe, likely by noon in the watch area.
With all of the shear, there is a high risk of strong tornadoes.
The main focus will be ahead of a dryline over western Kansas up into Southwestern Nebraska.
All of this is the last thing that people in South Central Kansas need to hear.
Notes…
…According to KWCH in Wichita, the Kansas Governor’s Office reports 7 fatalities. 6 in Kiowa County and 1 in Stafford County.
…The scenes of devastation are incredible from Greensburg, which was hit about 9:45 p.m. The tornado was at least half a mile wide. There is little left of the town of 1,600 people. There is a lot of open space in Kansas. Most tornadoes miss towns or only graze them, but this one scored a direct hit.
…Reports are that there is a mandatory evacuation of the entire town now.
…KWCH reporter indicated that some of the most intense damage was nears Macksville where his description indicates it might be an EF5 tornado
…I have not heard if the Dodge City NWS will be able to get a survey team into the field today due to the continuing severe weather threat
…Storm chasers turned into rescuers last night as they realized what had happened in Greensburg and other locations…pulling people out of rubble and assiting victims
