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An interesting pattern for forecasters in Alabama today and Monday as a backdoor cold front or wedge brings a little relief in the form of cooler temperatures and slightly drier air. The backdoor front was evident this morning on the surface chart especially in the wind fields where an east wind was clearly present. Plus a few showers had developed in the morning air along that front.
It still looks like we’ll remain essentially dry but a few folks will get some rain in those isolated showers. Monday should be a really nice day across Central Alabama as the wedge becomes established. But that cool down does not last long as we warm up quickly on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Our weather is rather tranquil compared to the hammering that has been occurring in the Central Plains. The Storm Prediction Center reports show over 90 tornadoes yesterday with a number of injuries. Bill Murray has been posting information on the two days of horrible storms out there so scroll down for more information. Unfortunately that area will be under the gun again today. But some change is beginning and the severe weather threat will be shifting east and south over the next couple of days.
Mid-week looks dry and warm here, but the GFS has a rather abrupt solution that I’m not really confident about. The big bowling ball closed low off the Southeast US coast just seems to fill rapidly after moving slightly westward. The GFS solution seems a bit quick in dissipating that closed low. This is something that will bear watching. If the GFS is wrong and if that closed low can maintain itself and moves closer – yeah, yeah, a lot of IFs I know – then our mid-week forecast would change drastically. But we’ll stick with it for now.
By Saturday, a weakness in the upper atmosphere moving out of Texas will be near enough to Central Alabama to enhance our chances for showers. This doesn’t look like a drought buster, but I’ll take any rain I can get right now.
Long range models continue to show the westerlies pretty far north, so no signs of any significant rain event – just the possibility of scattered showers.
Had a great time at the Birmingham Hamfest yesterday and at their banquet last night. I’ll be speaking today at the WHIM meeting – Women of Helena in Motion. They are doing a program on severe weather safety at the Senior Citizens Center behind the Helena City Hall. If you get the chance, come on out. Have a great Sunday. James will be back with the next Weather Xtreme Video bright and early Monday morning. God bless.
-Brian-
