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Sure feels good this morning; Gadsden has dropped to 46 degrees at 5:00, while most of the major reporting stations are in the low 50s. We won’t have many more of these cool mornings before we get into the hot summer.
Dry air means no rain today; lots of sunshine with a high near 80 degrees for most spots.
REST OF THE WEEK: Moisture levels will slowly increase over the latter half of the week. The GFS, which has had a wet bias in recent months, really ramps up the POPs on Thursday (POP=probability of precipitation), but the NAM is quite dry, and I side with the NAM solution. I guess a rogue shower might pop up somewhere Thursday afternoon, but most communities will remain dry. We will mention the chance of a few widely scattered showers and storms on Friday as the air will be a little more unstable.
WEEKEND PEEK: A weak front will stall near the Alabama/Tennessee border over the weekend, and with a fairly moist airmass in place, we will mention the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. No wash-out, and the rain won’t be all that widespread, but a passing shower or storm is a possibility for all of Alabama on both days. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s with intervals of sunshine.
SUB-TROPICAL STORM: How about that system east of Jacksonville… wave heights are 20 to 25 feet according to buoys. And, Quickscat satellite data suggests winds of 50 to 60 knots off the southeast coast of the U.S… that is approaching hurricane force. Lots of wind and rough surf is expected today all the way from the North Carolina Outer Banks south to near Daytona Beach, Florida. This system should slowly weaken as it approaches the coast during the next 48 hours, but hopefully it will bring some rain to the widfire areas of Southeast Georgia.
LONG RANGE: The GFS continues to suggest a decent rain event for Alabama in the May 18-19 time frame thanks to a long wave trough and the associated surface cold front. Keep your fingers crossed; we are beginning to see some decent consistency with the GFS and this system.
WEATHER BRAINS: I had to miss the show last night, but the gang recorded a new Weather Brains netcast that is available on the web and on iTunes now.
CLIMATE BRAINS: Anyone hear Dr. Roy Spencer on Rick and Bubba yesterday morning? What do YOU think about “global warming”? Let us hear from you on our new Climate Brains forum.
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page.
Another road trip today… I am headed to speak to the 4th grade at Kitty Stone Elementary School in Jacksonville, which has become quite a May tradition. I will be back in the weather office by early afternoon and will have the afternoon Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30!
