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Not a drop of rain across Alabama again today; making for a familiar site on radar. Absolutely no precipitation echoes. We do note on visible satellite images a nice buildup of cumulus clouds over the far northwest part of the state, and a few thunderstorms have formed over Northeast Mississippi.
Most Alabama towns will stay dry tomorrow, although a few isolated storms could fire up during the heat of the day over the northwest counties. Then, on Friday, a few widely scattered showers and storms are possible during the afternoon hours, but unfortunately it looks like the best chance of them will be over far North Alabama, over the Tennessee Valley. The chance of showers for I-20 and points south on Friday at this time looks pretty slim.
THE WEEKEND: It looks like the best chance of scattered showers and storms will come during the day Saturday as a weak surface front pushes into North Alabama. A few spots might pick up one-half inch of rain from the stronger showers or storms, but I am afraid some neighborhoods will barely have enough rain to wet the pavement and settle the dust.
The 12Z GFS has come in with a new twist; it pushes the surface boundary southward to near Montgomery by Saturday night, and dry air moves into the northern half of the state. If this solution is correct, North Alabama will be dry on Sunday and Monday with the showers confined to the southern half of the state (and even there they will be pretty widely spaced). If the 00Z run confirms this, we will probably begin to really back off on the chance of showers for Sunday and Monday.
LONG RANGE: Still some hope of an enhanced chance of showers or storms around May 18-19 with an upper trough to the north, and the associated surface cold front moving through. That feature is back on the 12Z GFS. Otherwise, the weather looks warm and muggy with only scattered showers and storms from time to time through May 25.
ANDREA: I am not sure this system has really changed all that much, but as you can see from the posts below this one our friends at NHC have given the sub-tropical storm east of Jacksonville a name. This thing will drift down toward Daytona Beach, where it will just sit there for a while as it weakens. The tropical models are all over the road; watch the video for the spaghetti plot. This system might hang around for a while. It should not impact Alabama’s weather in any way. I hope it brings a few decent showers to Southeast Georgia and Florida, where many wildfires are burning, but I am not really optimistic this thing will be a major rain producer.
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I sure enjoyed my visit to Brilliant Elementary School up in Marion County this morning… be looking for those students on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News… I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
