Nearly all of Central Alabama is bathed in warm, brilliant sunshine late on this May morning. The last of the stratus was burning off over East Alabama in northern Talladega, Calhoun and Clay Counties.
Temperatures are warming quickly through the 70s heading for highs in the 80s. It was already 81F at Gadsden and 82F at Tusacaloosa.
Instability values ranged from about 500 j/kg over much of Northeast Alabama into the 1000 j/kg range across Central and Northwest Alabama. A weak cap is in place across much of the area, except for Northwest Alabama, and you can already see showers bubbling up on the radar over southern Marion County near Guin. This may be the first place that we see active storm development because of the absence of a cap.
EDIT: 10:50 a.m. I spoke a little too soon about the weak cap. It was so weak it is almost totally gone across North and Central Alabama. And CAPE values are really increasing now, ranging between 1500-2000 j/kg across much of the area. Look for storm development to commence by early afternoon.
Clouds are are also showing up on satellite over Tennessee in advance of a weak cool front that will drop into Alabama tonight. This will combine with daytime heating to enhance our shower and storm chances this afternoon well into the evening. It will be pulse type thunderstorms again, with updrafts that quickly form, then rain themselves out just as fast only to form another updraft nearby.
Watch out for heavy rain and deadly lightning when storms form nearby or approach your area. There could also be a little bit of small hail with the more vigorous storms as well as gusty winds. A few of the storms may become briefly severe today, but widespread problems are not expected.
Drier air will filter in tomorrow behind the front as it settles into South Central Alabama, limiting our shower and storm chances through Tuesday.
I think we will see another easterly wedge tomorrow night and Monday, with increasing easterly winds Sunday evening, but nothing like we saw last week.
Good shower and storm chances on Wednesday ahead of a stronger cold front, that may hang around into the wekeend with additional shower chances. We can hope.
