The latest edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme Video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…
Warm, hazy, and smoky conditions continue across Central Alabama but we’re still holding out some hope for some better possibilities of rain. Today marks the start of the 2007 hurricane season, and we have some interesting weather developing in the western Caribbean.
A large area of disturbed weather just off the Yucatan coast was associated with lower pressures. Current model guidance suggests slow development of the system as it moves northeastward. It is likely to cross South Florida somewhere between Tampa and Miami and bring some much needed rain to that area. Perhaps it will also bring rain to South Georgia where the wildfires are still on-going. The models seem to be converging on similar solutions with not quite as much spread as we saw yesterday.
While I expect us to stay hazy and warm with only isolated showers for the next couple of days, a weak front does approach on Sunday giving the area its best chance for rain. There is a complication however. The tropical system could become the main focus of the atmosphere and the sinking motion that occurs away from tropical storms could actually suppress the influence of the front on Sunday. The GFS is certainly not bullish on rain on the 00Z run.
After Sunday we might see a few degrees shaved off temperatures but there is no real air mass change. So the forecast will have to remain steady with a mention of isolated showers mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
There is a small trough shown on the GFS around Wednesday, but the GFS is not too generous that the trough will generate much rain. A new trough over the western US promises to have some effect on our weather in about a week, however, while the Gulf was wide open, the GFS was sheepish on generating any rain. My confidence out that far is not very good at the moment.
I’m in Strongsville, OH, this morning, getting ready to participate in an EMWIN workshop for Ohio. Then it’s off to Chicago this evening to stop over and spend a few days with my daughter. I’ll have the next video posted tomorrow morning by 9 or 10 am depending on how late I sleep. Have a great Friday.
-Brian-
