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There are many, many events planned for the great outdoors this weekend in Alabama, and this discussion should answer most of your questions. Bottom line is that a significant severe weather threat is shaping for our state Saturday and Saturday night, and it is potentially dangerous. I encourage you to watch the Weather Xtreme video, which goes into deep detail and has plenty of great graphics.
SHORT TERM: We stay dry tomorrow, with a partly sunny sky and a high in the low to mid 80s. To the west, a major severe weather event will unfold tomorrow afternoon over Louisiana, Arkansas, and West Mississippi by mid to late afternoon; SPC has upgraded this region to a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms.
STORMY SATURDAY: We believe rain could begin early Saturday morning, perhaps even in the pre-dawn hours. Periods of rain will continue through the day statewide, but the severe weather risk will come during the afternoon and nighttime hours. At this point, it seems like the main window for severe storms will be from about 3:00 p.m. until 3:00 a.m…. the storms will initially develop over the western counties of the state, then slowly spreading eastward.
The latest model data continues to be rather aggressive with most severe weather parameters. The big question mark involves instability; surface based CAPE values will peak in the 1,000 to 1,500 j/kg range for North Alabama, which is not overly impressive for late April, but all other parameters are very significant. High low level helicity (veering of the wind with altitude), strong wind fields at the surface and aloft, diffluence aloft, and steep lapse rates are all in play.
This means all modes of severe weather will be possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A few violent, long track tornadoes are very possible.
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL: We should also mention that the rain could be heavy; the QPF guidance from HPC shows over three inches of rain for parts of North Alabama, average amounts around 2 inches for the I-20 corridor. At least this will help to wash away lots of the pollen that is giving many people problems in recent weeks. But, the ground is not saturated, and hopefully we won’t have to deal with serious flooding problems.
REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER PLAN: It is very important that everyone be in a position to hear severe weather warnings Saturday and Saturday night; a NOAA Weather Radio is something every Alabama home and business should have; never rely on outdoor warning sirens to let you know a tornado is approaching. Those are designed to reach a limited number of people outdoors. And, you can receive warnings on your home phone or cell phone via WeatherCall… you can sign up here. If you live in a mobile home, you need a sturdy shelter available. And, for those of you in site built homes, be sure everybody in the family knows the safest place, including the children.
Let’s hope the lack of serious instability will prevent really violent weather, but with the other severe weathers parameters so impressive, we must be ready for whatever happens.
TALLADEGA: Rain and storms are likely Saturday, making it difficult to run the Aaron’s 312, but the rain will be gone by early Sunday, and the sky should be partly sunny for the Aaron’s 499 on Sunday. We have great concern over the magnitude of the severe weather threat and the large number of campers on the grounds around the Superspeedway; everybody that is camping will need to be very aware of severe weather warnings, and have a plan on getting to a safe place well before severe weather arrives. I honestly can’t recall this type of severe weather threat during race weekend in years past. NASCAR and Talladega Superspeedway officials do a great job of getting the weather information to those on their property, but the campers will need to take the personal responsibility of getting to shelter if severe storms or tornadoes approach the big complex.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The first half of next week looks generally dry, with seasonal temperatures. Another major storm forms out west during the latter half of the week, but it remains to be seen if that one will pose another severe weather threat for Alabama around the first of May. We have seen some runs that show more of a flooding type event with a stalled front, and some runs that keep the heaviest rain north and west of Alabama. The jury is still out.
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We will keep the blog updated with fresh information on the severe weather threat as the event gets closer. I had a great time today visiting with the 3rd graders at Walter Kennedy Elementary in Pell City; be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted early tomorrow morning around 6:00.
