Writing this from Panama City…watching the strong SE winds bring moisture onshore from the now warmer Gulf of Mexico (water temps low 70s here, upper 70s way out in Gulf)
As the very impressive dynamics with system move in tomorrow morning, we will likely see showers and thunderstorms start over Alabama by 8 or 9 am. Wind shear will be very large most of the day and into tomorrow night, so any storms that form may rotate. Dewpoints should reach the upper 60s in BHM tomorrow. The only limiting factor is the possibility that rain during the day holds temperatures down, limiting instability in the afternoon. We will still see severe weather tomorrow afternoon and night. With the high wind shear and dewpoints, expect storms with damaging staight line winds tomorrow night. There will likely be isolated tornadoes at least.
The question is whether we have a major tornado outbreak tomorrow afternoon. If we have a break in the rain/clouds sometime tomorrow, with temperatures warming into the mid or upper 70s, a significant outbreak may occur. We’ll just have to wait and see. It’s not if, just how much severe weather.
Please have a tornado plan ready for wherever you will be tomorrow. If it warms to 75 tomorrow, this could be a bad one.
