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TORNADO WATCHES TO THE WEST: Tornado watches blanket much of West Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas as our severe weather event gets underway. Look for an increase in convection over this region during the next few hours, and all modes of severe weather will be possible. The NWS in Jackson just issued a tornado warning for Carroll, Holmes, Humphreys, Leflore, Sunflower, Washington counties in Mississippi till 4:15 pm.
THE ALABAMA STORY: We still expect a potentially dangerous severe weather outbreak across Alabama tomorrow. Let’s do a FAQ format this afternoon…
WHEN WILL THE RAIN BEGIN? Looks like the event is beginning a little earlier than forecast, so a few showers or storms could wander into West Alabama in the 9:00 p.m. to 12:00 midnight time frame. Showers will increase after midnight, and we will have to watch for strong storms during the pre-dawn and early morning hours as a warm front lifts northward.
WHEN IS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT? Again, we could very well see a few strong storms after midnight tonight, but I think we just need to highlight the entire day tomorrow with severe weather potential…. basically from 6:00 a.m. until 12:00 midnight. The most significant severe weather should come during the afternoon and evening hours.
WHAT TO EXPECT? Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the special upper air sounding from Jackson, done at 1:00 this afternoon, looks like the classic “loaded gun” sounding, with strong speed and directional shear, high instability (nearly 2,000 j/kg), an inversion above the moist air, and a steep lapse rate. This is the kind of atmosphere that will be over Alabama tomorrow, meaning storms that form can produce large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. A few violent, long track tornadoes will be possible since rotating updrafts will be sustained easily in this kind of environment.
HOW MUCH RAIN? Rain amounts of around 2 inches are likely, with isolated amounts to 3 inches over Northwest Alabama. The ground, needless to say, is not saturated, so we hope that will prevent major flash flooding issues.
HOW TO PREPARE? Every Alabamian will need to be in a position to hear tornado warnings late tonight and tomorrow. Never rely on outdoor warning sirens to let you know a tornado warning is in effect; every Alabama home, business, and church needs a NOAA Weather Radio. You can pick those up now at Handy TV and Publix locations; look for the ABC 33/40 display. You can also sign up for WeatherCall to receive warnings on your cell phone or home phone here. If you live in a mobile home, you will need a shelter identified, and a way to get there quickly. And, in site built homes, have the “safe place” identified and be sure the kids know where it is.
TALLADEGA: First, the good news… the weather looks great for Sunday’s Aaron’s 499, with a partly sunny sky and a high in the low 80s. It will be very difficult to get in tomorrow’s Aaron’s 312 due to the rain and storms. All campers around the Superspeedway need to be aware of the serious nature of this severe weather threat, and have a plan of action identified tonight, in the event the Superspeedway comes under a tornado warning tomorrow. You do not want to be in a mobile home, camper, RV, car, or truck in this kind of weather.
SPECIAL TONIGHT AT 8:00: I am planning on a live special on our live stream at 8:00… you can watch via computer, or our WeatherNow channel on cable systems around the state. I will give a full briefing on what we expect, and update events going on to the west. You can access the live stream here on the blog… it will be on the same stream that usually has our radar (it is on the upper right part of the blog, and you can make it full screen).
NEXT WEEK: Monday looks dry, but a strong vorticity max could bring a few showers Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday should be dry with seasonal temperatures. See the Weather Xtreme video for more on long range weather.
LIVE CHAT: We are now offering a real time chat here on the blog… open blog comments will stay in place, of course, but this will allow a more immediate method of communication for weather geeks. We do have moderators posted over there, so be sure and play nice. Members of our weather team will be there from time to time to answer questions; we will post those times we are available here on the blog.
FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….
| James Spann | Jason Simpson | Ashley Brand |
| J. B. Elliott | Bill Murray | Brian Peters |
| Dr. Tim Coleman | WeatherBrains Podcast | E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings) |
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
We will keep the blog updated with fresh information through this entire event… and we will see you tonight at 8:00 on our live stream…
