TRAGIC FLOODING OVERNIGHT
An early August wedge setup is delivering an unseasonably cool, damp day to much of Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. A persistent front draped across the region is interacting with a rich tropical airmass and upper-level energy, leading to widespread showers, embedded storms, and localized flash flooding. At the same time, temperatures are struggling to climb out of the 70s in many areas, and the tropics are stirring with several systems being monitored for development.
Overnight, widespread flash flooding unfolded across parts of East-Central Alabama as rounds of heavy thunderstorms repeatedly tracked over the same areas. Numerous counties—including Cherokee, Cleburne, Calhoun, Bibb, and Montgomery—were under Flash Flood Warnings, several of which carried a “considerable” damage threat designation from the National Weather Service in Birmingham. A Flood Watch remained in effect for much of Central and East Alabama, eventually being extended through Sunday evening.
Cherokee and Cleburne counties were hit especially hard, with emergency managers and 911 call centers reporting dozens of flooded roads, water rescues, and washouts. Multiple roads were inundated or washed away near Spring Garden, Forney, and Pleasant Gap in Cherokee County. Centre experienced several feet of water covering streets and impacting residences. In Calhoun County, the city of Piedmont reported flooded homes and road closures, prompting the opening of a shelter at Piedmont High School.
In Cleburne County, conditions were particularly dire near the Trickem area. A bridge was reported washed out, numerous roads were impassable, and emergency crews launched active search and rescue operations. Tragically, a vehicle was swept away on County Road 41. One person was found clinging to a tree, while another occupant was later found deceased.
As of mid-morning, flash flood warnings had transitioned to broader flood warnings, signaling a shift from active flash flooding to lingering high water concerns. Flood advisories remain in effect as cleanup and damage assessment efforts continue across the region.
SLOW-MOVING STORMS CONTINUE TO POSE FLOODING THREAT
A flood watch remains in effect through Sunday evening for areas near and east of the I-65 corridor in Central Alabama. A backdoor cold front and cold air damming setup has pushed westward into the state, bringing with it a deep stratus deck, easterly surface flow, and favorable overrunning from west-southwest flow aloft. This “wedge” pattern is promoting efficient rainfall processes, with PWAT values between 2.1 and 2.4 inches, and weak instability leading to tall, narrow CAPE profiles—perfect for heavy rainfall production.
Storms today are slow-moving, and in many areas training over the same locations. This raises concerns for flash flooding, especially where soils are saturated from Saturday’s rainfall. Clusters of storms this morning across east Alabama will slowly drift westward this afternoon. As they do, expect the potential for hourly rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2 inches. The HREF and WPC guidance continue to highlight this corridor for 3–5 inches of rain locally, with isolated higher amounts.
AUGUST COOL-DOWN: RECORD LOW MAXES IN PLAY
Thick cloud cover, persistent showers, and the cool wedge flow are combining to hold temperatures 10–15 degrees below average across much of the region today. Birmingham and Gadsden may remain in the upper 70s and lower 80s, while spots in east Alabama—like Anniston, Auburn, and Alexander City—may struggle to reach 75. Several observing sites are in contention for setting daily record low maximum temperatures. Rain chances persist through the evening, especially east of I-65, with slowly improving conditions overnight.
WET PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK
The wedge flow remains in place Monday and Tuesday, and several shortwave disturbances will continue to round the base of the longwave trough over the eastern U.S. This will lead to more rounds of showers and storms each afternoon. A favored corridor for heavy rain continues from central Alabama into western Georgia, with locally 1–3 inch totals possible through Tuesday. Highs remain in the mid 70s to mid 80s depending on cloud coverage and rain timing.
By Wednesday, the trough axis begins to shift eastward and ridge-building resumes over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. This allows temperatures to rebound slowly, with highs climbing back into the 80s areawide and eventually the low 90s by the weekend.
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for parts of the central and southern High Plains today, with a separate Marginal Risk over eastern Oregon. No severe storms are expected in Alabama, but flooding remains the primary concern. The latest Excessive Rainfall Outlook expands the Slight Risk area to cover most of east-central Alabama and west-central Georgia, where the best overlap of instability and high PWATs exists.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
The tropics are showing signs of life with three areas to monitor:
Invest 95-L Offshore North Carolina: A non-tropical low located about 200 miles east of the North Carolina coast continues to show signs of organization, with deep convection near its center and favorable shear conditions. There is a decent window through Monday for this system to become a tropical or subtropical depression or storm. However, it poses no threat to land, as it will continue moving east-northeastward into the open Atlantic.
Possible Southeast U.S. Coastal Development Later This Week: Model guidance continues to hint at the formation of a secondary low pressure system trailing 95-L by midweek. The GFS shows a weak tropical system moving toward eastern North Carolina by Saturday. The ECMWF and both GFS/ECMWF ensemble members suggest development north of the Bahamas, with wide variability in the eventual track. Some ensemble members pull the system into the Carolinas, while others veer it westward toward coastal Georgia or northeast Florida. At this time, development chances remain low, but the pattern favors close monitoring, especially for coastal areas from Florida to the Outer Banks.
Tropical Wave Over the Central Atlantic: A strong wave is expected to emerge from Africa within 48 hours and move west-northwest across the tropical Atlantic through mid to late week. The environment east of 40W appears marginally favorable, but conditions deteriorate west of 45W, potentially limiting any development. Most ensemble guidance shows a recurvature into the open Atlantic, but a few solutions bring the wave closer to the northeastern Caribbean or Bahamas by next weekend. This system is worth watching closely, especially for residents of the Leeward Islands.
BEACH FORECAST FOR THE BEAUTIFUL BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
It’s another active day along the Gulf Coast, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected through the afternoon. Highs will reach the upper 80s to near 90, with humid conditions and surf heights around 1 to 2 feet. Water temperatures remain in the upper 80s to low 90s. The rip current risk is low for Alabama beaches, but moderate to high for stretches of the Florida Panhandle, especially near Franklin County and state park beaches. Use caution in the water, and expect lightning delays at times.
ON THIS DATE IN 1970: Hurricane Celia, one of the worst hurricanes ever to hit Texas, struck the coast just north of Corpus Christi with measured sustained winds of 130 mph and wind gusts estimated to 180 mph. The storm had intensified rapidly in the hours before landfall. Corpus Christi sustained severe damage as microburst winds of 160 mph raked major residential areas for an hour. The city’s downton area was heavily damaged. Tremendous destruction occurred. 8950 homes were destroyed. The storm surge at Port Aransas Beach was measured at 9.2 feet above normal. Winds gusted to 89 mph as far inland as Del Rio (150 miles from the coast). The damage in Texas was a record up until that time: $444.9 million. 16 lives were lost in Celia. 466 were injured.
