MILD NOVEMBER DAY: Temperatures are generally in the 73-80 degree range across Alabama with a sunny sky. Clouds will increase tonight ahead of an upper trough/cold front.
TWO ROUNDS OF RAIN/STORMS: We will deal with two distinct rounds of rain and thunderstorms across Alabama over the next 36 hours…
*Round one will come from about 1:00 a.m. until 8:00 a.m. Most of this rain will fall over the northern half of the state, and there is basically no surface based instability. Despite good dynamic support, the risk of these storms becoming severe is pretty low because of the lack of buoyancy/instability.
*Round two will come from about 12 noon to 9:00 p.m. as showers and storms form ahead of the cold front. Some instability will be present tomorrow afternoon, but the wind dynamics are weakening quickly, which will also limit any severe weather threat.
SPC has defined a “slight risk” (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms for the central part of Alabama tomorrow, with a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) for the rest of the state.
For the reasons stated above this doesn’t look like a big severe weather problem for Alabama, but as always with thunderstorms we expect the unexpected… so we will still watch radar trends closely. Stronger storms could produce gusty winds and some small hail; a brief isolated is possible, but not likely.
Rain amounts will be in the 1-2 inch range for North Alabama, with amounts under one inch for the southern counties.
Wednesday will feature a clearing sky and cooler temperatures; highs will be in the 57-64 degree range.
THANKSGIVING: Thursday will be dry with a cold morning; we start the day in the 30s, with a freeze for the northern third of the state. With a sunny sky temperatures rise into the 47-54 degree range by afternoon.
A freeze is likely for most of the state Friday morning; Friday will be sunny cool with a high in the 50s.
THE WEEKEND: Saturday stays cool and dry with a high in 50s and low 60s, but clouds will increase Saturday night, and global models show another large area of rain moving through the state Sunday. See the video briefing for maps, graphics, and more details.
IRON BOWL FORECAST: The weather will be dry and cold for the biggest football game of the year in Alabama Saturday night (Alabama at Auburn, 6:30p CT kickoff at Jordan Hare Stadium). Temperatures will be in the 40s.
ON THIS DATE IN 2001: Thirty six tornadoes touched down in Alabama on November 24, 2001. The first major tornado of the day cut a 39 mile path from near Kennedy in Lamar County to just south of Carbon Hill in Walker County. Two people died in a mobile home near Kennedy.
An F2 tornado cut a short path through the town of Haleyville in Winston County just before 11:30 a.m., injuring thirteen people. Just northeast of Birmingham, an F2 tornado moved along I-59 near Argo as it cut a nearly 14 mile path into St. Clair County.
The strongest tornado of the day touched down about 1:19 p.m. CST southeast of Oneonta in Blount County. The tornado produced three distinct areas of F4 damage. The other two fatalities of the day occurred near Sand Rock in Cherokee County just after 3 p.m. as an F2 tornado cut an 8 mile path. Again, the fatalities were in a mobile home.
Prior to storms moving into Alabama that day, several tornadoes touched down in Mississippi during the pre-dawn hours… including two F4 tornadoes across Washington and Bolivar Counties at around 2a CT and in Madison County near the city of Madison at around 5a CT. The second tornado killed at least 2 (including a newborn baby) and injured 21. Another tornado in Mississippi, an F2, struck Quitman, Panola and Tate Counties just after 3a CT and killed at least three.
Look for my next video briefing here by 6:00 a.m. tomorrow…
