Just A Few Showers

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TODAY: A strong impulse aloft will pass over North Alabama today, and will squeeze out a little light rain in spots despite very limited moisture. Most places will see under 1/10th of an inch, and many neighborhoods won’t have enough rain to measure. Looks like most of the showers will come through before 8:00 this morning; redevelopment this afternoon should be mostly over Northeast Alabama. Otherwise, the day will be generally cloudy and cool with a high only in the mid 60s, over ten degrees below the average high today of 77. Tonight will be chilly as the sky clears; most communities will see a low in the 40 to 45 degree range early tomorrow. Some of the colder valleys could reach the upper 30s.

TOMORROW/THURSDAY: These two days will offer a good supply of sunshine with a nice warming trend. We expect a high tomorrow in the low 70s, followed by 80 degrees on Thursday.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: A classic battle is setting up between a warm, dry ridge over Florida, and a very deep upper trough over the western half of the nation. No doubt somebody will be dealing with potential for severe thunderstorms and flooding, and the GFS has been trending farther west and north in recent runs with that zone. Friday looks like a warm and breezy day, and the latest model output suggests we can really scale back on showers here, with most of the organized activity to the west and north. The high Friday should be in the low 80s.

For Saturday and Sunday, we will mention a chance of few showers and storms, but the most organized action looks like it will be in a zone over West Tennessee, East Arkansas, and Mississippi, where some flooding and severe weather problems could erupt. Around here highs will be in the mid 80s, and the sun could be out at times. So, no wash-out expected, but a few showers or storms are not out of the question. But, that zone of really nasty weather isn’t too far away, and any shift to the east and south with the upper trough could mean a much more unsettled weekend here. Stay tuned.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The 00Z GFS continues the idea of the main zone of organized showers and storms a little northwest of Alabama on Monday and Tuesday as a strong 5940 500 mb ridge forms over Florida; we should be well up in the 80s on these days with some risk of scattered showers and storms. Chance of a good cold front passage next week for now is looking small with that strong ridge in place. And, the 00Z GFS is back on the idea of some very warm weather setting in here in the May 8-12 time frame as the upper ridge takes over. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.

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This morning I am speaking in Chattanooga, Tennessee… but I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!