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Wow, what a record breaking day we saw in Central Alabama with new records established in Anniston, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Pinson, and Montgomery. And some strong thunderstorms developed in the heat of the afternoon. Those thunderstorms were even beneficial to areas around them. No rain fell at my camp site on Mt. Cheaha, but the thunderstorms nearby lowered my temperature by about 12 degrees. With it being so dry – rainfall deficits in Central and North Alabama running 20 to 25 inches below normal – I would like to have had some rain here. Unfortunately, it looks like the rain chances are over for the better part of the next four or five days.
The upper ridge seems to shift slightly westward today while drier air filters into North and Central Alabama. This will mean no rain with lower humidity but temperatures still climbing to around 100. We may see a couple of degrees knocked off the heat with the ridge nudged west just a trifle.
But the ridge builds back on Sunday and stays well into the middle of the upcoming week. The GFS is showing signs that the strength of the ridge will begin to wane by the end of the week. But there are other interesting developments, too. The Canadian model develops a tropical system in the vicinity of the Bahamas Sunday and then takes it northeastward into the open Atlantic but near Bermuda. The GFS picks up on that same development but not until 48 to 60 hours. The GFS also projects it moving northeastward.
Toward the end of the week, we may see enough moisture return to pop isolated showers back into the forecast. But with the upper ridge shrinking, we should also see abating heat. Boy, I hope that is true.
In the area of voodoo, there are really some interesting developments. The GFS, notorious for developing tropical systems but changing their track from run to run, develops a strong storm in the eastern Caribbean and moves that puppy straight across the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the Alabama coast. If I were a betting man, I think I’d place my money on the Alabama coast NOT getting the storm. But this is surely a wait and see situation. I suspect that we’ll see lots of solutions between now and the latter part of August, but it’s nice that the GFS provides us with something to talk about. Remember, if you are new to all of this, we can’t put much stock in the exact storm track – we’ll watch the trends and see how it all unfolds. But one thing that favors the GFS solution of developing a storm is that we are getting into the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, and something seems likely to blow in the near future.
So stay cool at least for another five days but enjoy the lower humidity today and tomorrow. It has been nice to only have highs in the lower 90s on Mt. Cheaha. I anticipate having another Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8:30 am tomorrow morning. In the meantime, I’m planning a lot of pool time today. You should see me in my Speedo and black socks – doesn’t that conjure up a nightmare!! Stay cool and God bless.
-Brian-
