96F at the Birmingham Airport at noon. A degree warmer than yesterday. 99F at Tuscaloosa. A degrees warmer than yesterday. The high in Birmingham yesterday was 102F, but could have gone higher had there not been nearby storms in the early afternoon. It is conceivable that we could see a high of 104 or higher today.
Could the all time high in T-town be in jeopardy? It was tied yesterday when the thermometer registered 107F.
Turning our attention to the tropics…
Could this be Hurricane Dean in ten days?
We are now watching a disturbance that has moved off the west coast of Africa. It will be the first Cape Verde hurricane of the season eventually. The GFS model brings it all the way ascross the Atlantic to around Puerto Rico next weekend. Last night’s run carried it northwestward from there, menacing the eastern coast of Florida before barrelling into the Carolinas as a major hurricane. This morning’s run drives it along a more southerly track, across the Greater Antilles, along the north coast of Cuba and to near Key West by the evening of the 20th.
After that, of course, it moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico where the model takes it north toward a landfall near Apalachicola, Florida twenty four hours later. If it does come up the west coast of Florida, it would probably be weaker because of the proximity to land. That track would bring some beneficial rains to the eastern half of the state.
Here is the GFS out at 264 hours, or ealy Wednesday morning the 22nd.
Here is an animation of the 12z run of the GFS.
All this is serious voodoo at this time. There is absolutely no skill at forecasting specific tracks or intensity out at 240 hours, so take this as a bottle of salt. But suffice to say, the U.S. could be threatened by a landfalling hurricane somewhere along the Gulf or East Coast in the 14 day time frame.
We will all have plenty of time to watch this one over the next ten days.
The morning run of the Canadian model develops a weak possibly tropical low over South Florida and moves it slowly north into southern Georgia over the next seven days. The GFS is not picking up on anything here.
