A few quick notes at mid-morning….
*As discussed on the blog in recent days, this was going to be a situation where the worst weather would be just north and west of Alabama, which has been the case so far. A tug of war between the upper trough to the west, and a warm ridge to the east. The ridge has been far enough into Alabama to provide a capping inversion which has kept most of the state dry so far, with the exception of the northwest corner of the state.
*I still believe the greatest risk will be heavy rain during the next 24 hours. Sure, a few severe storms are possible, but with marginal lapse rates, a saturated airmass through the entire atmosphere, and weakening wind fields, the tornado threat is not all that great today. Could we have a tornado warning? Sure. But, nothing like last Saturday, and nothing like the weather west of Alabama yesterday.
*I think the HPC forecasts have been too aggressive… rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches here are more likely, in line with the latest model guidance. Isolated amounts in the 3 to 4 inch range are possible, but not likely.
*When it comes to thunderstorms, expect the unexpected, so we will be watching developments today closely…
