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HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURNING: As a storm system lifts to the northeast out of the Plains, moist air will return to Alabama today. We will keep an eye on the big MCS (mesoscale convective system) to the northwest of the state; a few showers and storms could arrive in Northwest Alabama this afternoon, but the rest of the state should remain generally dry during the day. Temperatures will warm into the mid 80s this afternoon.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW: We will mention a chance of showers and storms; some model runs have suggested the best chance of rain will come after midnight tonight, and into the early morning hours tomorrow. But, I think we could see some redevelopment tomorrow afternoon, but the showers then will be scattered. We also note SPC has a slight risk of severe weather out tonight for the western counties of the state, but no doubt the higher severe weather probabilities will remain to the west.
The NAM has become pretty aggressive with rain; it is now printing 1.54″ for Birmingham during the next 48 hours. The GFS is drier, and probably closer to the truth, with 0.76″. The heaviest rain in Alabama should be up north, over the Tennessee Valley, where the dynamic support will be better.
THE WEEKEND: The weather will be hotter and drier. A strong upper ridge begins to build, and I think we can remove any chance of showers Sunday, and even Saturday should be mostly dry with only a slight risk of an afternoon shower. It will be the warmest weekend so far this year, with temperatures rising into the low 90s in many areas by Sunday afternoon.
NEXT WEEK: Looks very quiet here. Very warm and humid; we might see a shower or two on radar during the afternoon hours at some point, but no widespread rain is expected. Highs next week will be mostly in the upper 80s. And, this kind of weather will carry on into early June as the main storm track remains well to the north. Summer weather is sure settling in.
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