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RIGHT NOW: Strong to severe storms continue over parts of Mississippi, where a number of severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued by the NWS in Jackson. In fact, you can see scattered storms all the way to East Texas, in a zone where the air is moist and instability values are high. Here in Alabama, we have moderate instability and very little helicity (veering of the wind with altitude), so we don’t expect any major severe weather issues this afternoon or tonight. Still, one or two severe thunderstorm warnings could be required this evening for the counties near the Mississippi border.
Otherwise, Alabama is pretty much drenched in sunshine this afternoon with temperatures in the 80s.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW: We expect a general increase in the number of showers and storms late tonight as the storm over the Southern Plains weakens and passes north of Alabama. The models are actually in pretty good agreement that the highest concentration of showers and storms will come from about midnight tonight through 8:00 a.m. tomorrow. Then, the storms weaken and fade away, but a few scattered ones could redevelop during the afternoon heating. The NAM is now printing 0.53″ for Birmingham, while the GFS now is the wet model with 1.78″. I figure we can expect about 1/2 to 1 inch of rain tonight and early tomorrow.
FIELD DAY: I think every school in Alabama is having “field day” tomorrow… which features lots of outdoor games and stuff for the kids as the school year winds down. There is no doubt you will have to dodge a few showers and storms tomorrow, but it won’t rain all day, and the sun will peek out at times. Everybody has a different definition of a “rainy day”… some rain is likely tomorrow, but there will be some very good breaks between the showers. Make plans accordingly…
THE WEEKEND: The heat cranks up for the weekend as an upper ridge builds over the eastern half of the nation. Sure looks like we rise into the 90 to 93 degree range both Saturday and Sunday, and the chance of rain is so small is is barely worth mentioning in the forecast. If any showers do happen to pop up over the weekend, they should be very isolated.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Summer-like weather sets in as we wrap up May and start meteorological summer into early June. Partly sunny, warm, humid days with your standard risk of a brief passing afternoon shower or storm in a few spots. The placement and coverage of the showers each day will be determined by small scale features we can’t identify very far in advance. But, no sign of any major rain event or severe weather setup as the storm track stays north, and winds aloft around here remain light.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…. we will keep you posted on the thunderstorm situation tonight…
