An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…
A FEW RAINDROPS: Nice to see a few isolated showers and storms on the radar this afternoon; that means the air aloft is a little cooler, and the capping inversion is weaker. From our Skywatcher atop Simmons Mountain, near Springville:
“Final rain total was .21 inches with temp low of 75 degrees during the rain activity.”
And, from Skywatcher Mike McCormick in Ashland:
“James, getting a nice little thunderstorm here in Ashland right now. Quite a bit of thunder and cloud to ground lightening…not a whole lot of rain out of this though. A couple of trees reported down in Ashland…nothing major though.”
Sure nice to see some action on the radar for a change.
Away from the showers, heat is still the big story. Birmingham right now is at 102 degrees; that means we have endured triple digit for 10 days in a row as the record just keeps expanding. But, generally speaking, temperatures today are a few degrees lower than yesterday, but I am not sure you can really tell the difference.
LOOKING AHEAD: I still think we have good potential to reach 100 degrees tomorrow and Saturday, but we will back highs down into the mid to upper 90s by Sunday and early next week. There will be some risk of afternoon thunderstorms each day, but they will remain widely spaced, and unfortunately no widespread rain is expected through early next week.
ERIN: Tropical storm Erin moved into the Texas coast this morning; that will produce heavy rain over parts of Texas during the next day or two, where some flash flooding is possible. Due to the persistent heat ridge, moisture from Erin should not move our way.
DEAN: An Air Force Hurricane Hunter reached Hurricane Dean this afternoon; it measured sustained winds of 90 mph with gusts over 100. Dean will move through the Leeward/Windward Islands tomorrow, and into the Caribbean over the weekend. Continued strengthening is likely, and Dean is forecast to become a major hurricane in a day or two.
Very interesting to note that the global models are beginning to bend the track of Dean a little northward by the middle of next week; the 12Z GFS has the system moving into the northern coast of Mexico, just south of Brownsville, Texas, on Thursday. The GFDL is showing a sharper turn to the right, and has Dean in the Central Gulf of Mexico at 126 hours (Tuesday) south of New Orleans, moving northward. This scenario, needless to say, would mean a threat to the central Gulf coast under the assumption the heat ridge over the Deep South will begin to break down and a weakness develops.
Lots of uncertainty here, and we can speculate all day, but nobody knows where Dean will go at this point. Everyone from Vera Cruz to Panama City will need to keep an eye on this one. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and model output.
LONG RANGE: The 12Z GFS shows another tropical storm/hurricane just south of Mobile Bay at the end of the month. This, of course, is pure voodoo, but on the other hand it is not out of the question. Looks like of tropical action in the days ahead.
ABC 33/40 DOPPLER RADAR: We have a crew up at our radar site this afternoon working on the system; it has been down for a couple of weeks, but parts have arrived and just maybe we will be back in business this evening. ABC 33/40’s Pinpoint Doppler Radar is atop Double Oak Mountain in northern Shelby County near the community of Mount Laurel…
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather hosted by David Black and featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You have until midnight tonight to get your “guess the landfall of Dean” entry into the WeatherBrains crew… listen to the show on how to enter and the prize.
Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…..
