Hurricane Dean is passing through the Lesser Antilles this morning as a category two hurricane. Rapid intensification may occur later today and steady intensification is forecast through the weekend. The forecast track is west northwestward through the weekend. The official track is slowed down and more to the north toward the end of the 5 day period, indicating more of a threat to the Gulf Coast of the United States.
QUICK FACTS
LOCATION: 14.3N/60.9W or between St. Lucia and Martinique
MOVEMENT: W-24
MAX WINDS: 100 mph (category two)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 mb/28.82 inches
INTENSITY TRENDS
Intensification has been held back by the presence of drier air. As Dean enters the eastern Caribbean today, rapid intensification is possible. The NHC forecast calls for steady intensification with Dean becoming a category four hurricane over the western Caribbean over the weekend.
AFFECTS ON THE ISLANDS
Storm surge is not a big problem with hurricanes in the Lesser Antilles as the water tends to flow around the islands instead of piling up. Wind will be the big problem for the islands with flash flooding from rains a concern.
MARTINIQUE:
at 3 a.m. CDT at Le Lamentin Airport: Wind NE-33 G 59. Visibility 1 mile, mostly cloudy, heavy rain showers. Temp 77F. DP: 75F. Humidity 94% Barometer: 29.50 (falling rapidly).
ST. LUCIA:
at 3 a.m. CDT at Wind W-23 G 35. 2 miles visibilty, light rain showers, cloudy skies. Temp 75F, DP 73F, RH 94%. Barometer: 29.50.
OTHER ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
Puerto Rico should only receive passing showers and some tropical storm force winds. The south side of the Dominican Republic and Haiti will get heavy rains and tropical storm to some hurricane force winds on Saturday. Jamaica could get a direct hit on Sunday. Remember, they dodged a bullet with Ivan in 2004. They were not so lucky with Gilbert in 1988. It may pass very close to the Caymans early on Sunday. They were not so luck with Ivan and still have not recovered completely. Western Cuba probably gets tropical storm force winds if the track stays more to the south. If it bends to the north, hurricane conditions are likely. The Yucatan and Cozumel stand to get another direct hit unless the track is further north.
EVENTUAL TRACK
There are two schools of thought after the Caribbean. 1. A weakened hurricane Dean emerges off the Yucatan and goes westward into the Bay of Campeche, hitting Mexico, perhaps as far north as Brownsville, Texas. 2. The ridge to the north weakens, and Dean emerges into the Gulf, perhaps still as a Category Four hurricane if it misses the Yucatan and moves more northwestward or even northward. The threat to the Texas coast is certainly magnified. The threat to places further east, like Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama is also heightened. The overnight runs of the GFS still take it into Mexico. The GFDL curves it toward the Houston area.
Official NHC TracK
RECON
NOAA Gulfstream Plane sampled the environment around the hurricane at high altitudes last night and the result was a much tighter clustering of the track model output. This always happens with better data. Two low level missions will be flown today.
