Aircraft recorded flight-level winds of 124 knots (145 mph) in Dean around noon, with a closed eye wall. NHC has updated the offical intensity of Dean to 110 knots, which is just short of being a Category 4 hurricane. Dean will be moving over warm waters, so may strengthen even more as it moves through the Caribbean.
Models continue to indicate that the upper level ridge to the north of Dean will keep it on a WNW track, bringing landfall somewhere from Mexico up into Texas next week. GFS and NAM do indicate upper low, from 500 mb up to 200 mb, in the NW Gulf early next week. Could this create enough weakness in the ridge to allow the hurricane to turn right? I don’t know. But, I think there is still uncertainty with the track beyond Monday.
NHC predicts a strong Category 4 hurricane by Sunday and Monday, south of Cuba, with sustained winds around 150 mph.
This will be the big weather story the next few days. At least we’ve had some rain last night and today in parts of central Alabama, and our streak of 100 degree days may be over today in BHM.
A webpage from NOAA with various satellite images zoomed in on the hurricane can be found here. https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/float1.html.
