I believe that Hurricane Dean is going through an eyewall replacement cycle. The central pressure has risen slightly and the Air Force crew reports that the eye is now open to the south. Here is the recon report from just after 10 a.m.
000
URNT12 KNHC 181536
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/15:02:00Z
B. 15 deg 39 min N
068 deg 43 min W
C. 700 mb 2511 m
D. 80 kt
E. 196 deg 5 nm
F. 281 deg 091 kt
G. 194 deg 005 nm
H. 930 mb
I. 11 C/ 3051 m
J. 21 C/ 3038 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN S
M. C11
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0604A DEAN OB 15
MAX FL WIND 92 KT SW QUAD 15:00:30 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 139 KT NE QUAT 15:05:30 Z
EYEWALL ON SOUTH SIDE LOOKING MORE RAGGED
In this process, the eyewall of the tighly wound hurricane disintegrates and reforms at a greater distance from the center. The winds will likely diminish slightly, probably back to a low category four level. If conditions are favorable, and they will be, the storm will begin to intensify again and the new eyewall will begin to contract.
As you know, fluctuations in intensity are expected in a powerful hurricane.
Dean will likely become a Category Five hurricane tomorrow as it travels over the high octane fuel of the Northwest Caribbean.
