Not much has changed this afternoon. Dean remains a powerful Category Four hurricane with top winds of 150 mph.
FAST FACTS
LOCATION: LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES ESE OF KINGSTON, JAMAICA
MOVEMENT: WNW 18 mph
MAX WINDS: 150 mph
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 930mb/27.46 inches
The storm is expected to hit Jamaica on Sunday. Hurricane warnings are in effect there. The Caymans will bear the brunt also of the storm, late Sunday night into Monday. It will then strike the Yucatan, quite likely as a Category Five hurricane.
Computer guidance continues to suggest that the high pressure ridge will build back to the north of the hurricane as an upper loe weakens, keeping the hurricane on a more westerly track that will carry it across the Bay of Campeche and into Mexico.
There is concern however that the GFDL still pushes it on a track to just north of Brownsville, Texas. That is one of the most accurate track models. From the afternoon discussion, just issued by the NHC: THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT BRINGS THE HURRICANE OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND KEEPS DEAN IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY FOUR. THERE COULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE GFDL HAS HAD A VERY RELIABLE TRACK RECORD.
Here is the official forecast track from the NHC…
