FAST FACTS…10 PM CDT
LOCATION…LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND 195 MILES SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MOVEMENT…W-20 MPH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS…145 MPH
CENTRAL PRESSURE…924 MB
At 10 p.m. tonight, extremely dangerous Hurricane Dean is pulling away from Jamaica. Hurricane force winds were still being experienced over the southwest corner of the island. The entire island is still experiencing tropical storm force winds. It is likely that Category Three winds were felt along the southern quarter of the country. Category Four winds likely stayed offshore.
Damage will be heavy, although the situation could have been much worse. Jamaica has been fairly lucky over the years. Hurricane Ivan in 2004 seemed to be on a direct path of destruction for the island when it miraculously shifted south and skirted the coast, with the most dangerous winds remaining just offshore. Gilbert scored a direct hit on the island in 1988, but as a Category Three hurricane. Allen brushed the southern side of the island in 1980, but catastrophic damage was avoided.
It has been a long night in the Cayman Islands nervously monitoring the latest on Dean. Hurricane Ivan damaged 90 percent of the buildings in the country in 2004. Tropical storm force winds will reach Grand Cayman about 3 a.m. Monday morning. On its closest approach, it appears that the center of the hurricane will be about 75 miles south of Grand Cayman, and hurricane force winds will remain offshore. Of course, with even short term forecast errors, this could certainly bring the brunt of the dangerous semicircle to the islands. This appears unlikely however, as Dean has been well behaved. Tropical storm force winds should diminish by evening Monday night.
The hurricane will then travel over ocean water with very high heat content, and strengthening is very possible. Dean could become a Category Five hurricane on Monday. Tropical storm force winds will reach the eastern shore of the Yucatan around 10 p.m. CDT Monday evening. The center should pass about 100 miles south of Cozumel, making landfall between Chetumal and Cancun Cozumel should escape with no hurricane force winds. I am sure they are keeping their fingers crossed.
